FXUS64 KBRO 030338 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1038 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 High pressure across the Gulf continues to build through the end of the week, with drier air gradually cutting off rain chances before most Independence Day celebrations. Most of any leftover showers remain generally light tonight, with the best chance of rain shifting further north and coastal to offshore into early Thursday and across the brush country on Friday. Still expect near normal highs and lows, with cloud cover slowly diminishing through Friday. The humidity will help drive a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across the RGV through Independence Day. With it being a holiday weekend, nice weather, and a very borderline rip current situation due to wave heights around 3 ft and swell period at times reaching above 5 seconds, will bump up the rip current risk to moderate Thursday and Friday for some additional awareness. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The mid-level ridge pivots back across the Desert SW through the holiday weekend, allowing weak 500mb low pressure to nestle along the lower Texas coast and some low level moisture to bring back some rain chances. Above normal PWATs return Saturday into Wednesday, increasing POPs each afternoon towards 20 percent, mainly along the sea breeze, especially Monday and Tuesday. Drier air arrives by mid to late week as high pressure briefly builds again. Expect near to slightly above normal temperatures through next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions give way to MVFR ceilings overnight as moisture continues to stream from south to north across the RGV. A brief passing shower or drizzle is possible through tonight. VFR conditions and gradually diminishing cloud cover is expected Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 1036 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Now through Next Thursday...Surface high pressure generally holds across the Western Gulf with light to briefly moderate southeasterly winds through the forecast period, allowing seas to gradually diminish by the weekend and remain favorable through Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms offshore gradually taper off through tomorrow before returning again Monday through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 79 91 78 / 20 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 76 92 76 / 30 10 10 0 MCALLEN 89 78 94 78 / 40 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 76 91 75 / 50 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 80 86 80 / 20 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 78 89 78 / 20 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...56-Hallman LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...56-Hallman