FXUS64 KBRO 021109 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 609 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will continue overnight as the remnants of Barry slowly squander. Abundant tropical moisture will hang around and leave a low to moderate chance (20-40%) of showers with thunderstorms possible today. High pressure over northern TX will build through the week, allowing subsidence and diminishing chances of showers. By Thursday, upper- level ridging over central US will allow for evacuation of moisture in the mid-levels, leaving a low chance (<15%) of showers and allowing for partly sunny skies. Below normal high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s today. With clearing cloud cover following upper-level ridging, highs begin to return to near-normal late week, with highs in the low 90s Thursday. The low-level moisture leaves apparent temperatures in the 90s to mid-100s today, and will continue to increase by 2-5 degF through the period. Seasonable low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s provide little relief. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Upper-level ridging will maintain mostly dry conditions through the weekend. There is a chance of sea breeze activity near the coast each afternoon as surface heating increases. Near normal temperatures in the mid to upper 90s are expected for the holiday weekend with lows in the 70s. Despite near-normal temperatures, high humidity will maintain elevated apparent temperatures ranging from 100 (Western Rio Grande Plains) to 110 (Mid RGV, northern I-69E corridor) each afternoon. This will be important to consider during any outdoor activities; remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks to avoid overheating. Early next week, the upper-level ridge will be overtaken by a building high pressure over the desert SW, bringing an inverted trough into the western Gulf. Low confidence in chance of showers early-midweek along the coast. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are expected with MVFR ceilings expected to persist for a couple more hours due to the low-level clouds. As the morning continues, VFR conditions are expected to return for the majority of the day. However a few periods of MVFR ceilings are possible. Chances of rain and thunderstorms are also possible, however confidence was too low to include in the TAF package. By the end of the TAF period, MVFR ceilings are expected to return due to more low-level clouds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1016 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Gusty, moderate winds within isolated showers are maintaining elevated seas overnight. There is a low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today, diminishing to less than 10% by tonight through the weekend. As showers move out of the area this morning, southerly winds - gentle to moderate - and slight seas will prevail late week and into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 78 91 78 / 20 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 76 92 76 / 30 10 10 0 MCALLEN 90 78 94 78 / 30 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 76 91 76 / 30 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 80 87 80 / 20 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 77 90 78 / 20 10 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...69 LONG TERM....69 AVIATION...64-Katz