FXUS64 KBMX 202046 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 346 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026 - Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Central Alabama for both Monday and Tuesday in the afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds gusts up to 60 mph. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026 Our upper ridge of late is situated from WRN TN SWWD to Mexico. It is continuing to deteriorate as a closed low over Florida pushes westward toward the Northern Gulf Coast. At the same time, an upper shortwave will move EWD out of the Rockies and toward the Great Lakes late by Tuesday. Low to moderate chances for diurnally enhanced convection will continue daily through Tuesday. Some storms may be strong to severe at times, especially on Monday and Tuesday with the main threat of strong downburst winds. On Tuesday, guidance weakens/deteriorates the upper low over the coast. However, rain chances continue for Tuesday, but instead will be focusing on activity ahead of a cold front that should move through the area by Wednesday. Guidance has become favorable with a pattern shift taking this front through the area and bringing much welcome more "normal" temperature readings for this time of year into Central Alabama for the latter half of the week and into next weekend. We may even see a few 50s in our northern counties. 08 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with one exception. An upper low over the Eastern Gulf Coast will allow for a low chance of convection this afternoon. Coverage is expected to be too isolated to pin point for TAF inclusion ATTM. Will monitor for any needed amendments. Otherwise, look for fair weather VFR cumulus with light/variable winds. The exception to VFR is a low probability of MVFR fog near AUO toward sunrise. I have included a TEMPO group to account for fog. Widespread fog is not anticipated. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will remain above 40%. Low to medium chances for showers and storms will continue into the middle of this week with light winds outside of convection. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 95 69 93 / 30 30 40 60 Anniston 70 93 70 92 / 30 30 30 50 Birmingham 73 95 72 93 / 30 30 20 50 Tuscaloosa 72 98 72 96 / 30 30 20 40 Calera 71 95 70 94 / 20 30 30 40 Auburn 71 92 71 91 / 20 20 30 30 Montgomery 72 94 72 94 / 20 20 30 20 Troy 70 93 70 94 / 20 10 30 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...08