FXUS64 KBMX 201844

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

144 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 119 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026



- Severe Weather: There is a level 1 out of 5 threat for strong 

  to severe thunderstorms across portions of Central Alabama for 

  both Monday and Tuesday in the afternoon and evening. The 

  primary threat will be damaging winds gusts up 60 mph.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Sunday through next Saturday)

Issued at 1039 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026



We had a fairly active afternoon unfold across the region as

several diurnally driven storms overperformed at times. Several

storms produced damaging wind gusts that led to downed trees and

powerlines across Central Alabama. Activity has waned over the

last few hours as we have lost daytime heating. Low level

moisture left in the wake of these storms will likely lead to

patchy fog developing around sunrise Sunday morning. Water vapor

imagery reveals our well advertised upper level closed low

emerging over the eastern Gulf as it moves off the coast of

Florida. A plume of moisture associated with this feature will

drive our weather as we wrap up the weekend. Another round of

scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday

afternoon. Strong wind gusts will be the primary threat with this

activity. The upper level low will begin to break down early next

week, leaving healthy moisture in place across the state. This

will allow for low to medium chances for diurnally driven

convection daily through Wednesday. By the middle of the week, an

upper trough will swing across the Plains while sending a cold

front our way. This will provide a decent "cool" down for us with

high settling into the mid 80s. The more noticeable change will

come during the morning hours as we will see temps in the low to

mid 60s by Friday morning. This was the first time in quite some

time that I remember looking at the ECMWF EFI and not seeing a

signal for anomalously warm temps! With that said, we will have

to get through a few more days of highs in the mid 90s before our

"relief" arrives.



95/Castillo



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 119 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026



VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with one

exception. An upper low over the Eastern Gulf Coast will allow 

for a low chance of convection this afternoon. Coverage is 

expected to be too isolated to pin point for TAF inclusion ATTM. 

Will monitor for any needed amendments. Otherwise, look for fair

weather VFR cumulus with light/variable winds. The exception to

VFR is a low probability of MVFR fog near AUO toward sunrise. I 

have included a TEMPO group to account for fog. Widespread fog is

not anticipated. 



08



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Fire weather concerns remain low at this time, although

compounding effects from intensifying drought conditions may

arise. Daily MinRH through the weekend will remain above 40%. Low

to medium chances for showers and storms will continue into the

middle of this week with light winds outside of convection.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     71  95  69  93 /  20  30  40  60 

Anniston    70  93  70  92 /  20  30  30  50 

Birmingham  73  95  72  93 /  20  30  20  50 

Tuscaloosa  72  98  72  96 /  20  30  20  40 

Calera      71  95  70  94 /  20  30  30  40 

Auburn      71  92  71  91 /  10  20  30  30 

Montgomery  72  94  72  94 /  10  20  30  20 

Troy        70  93  70  94 /  10  10  30  20 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...95/Castillo

AVIATION...08