FXUS64 KBMX 051852

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

152 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



...New DISCUSSION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 146 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026



- Heat: Humidity will push heat indices into the 95-100 degree

  range mid-week, creating a moderate heat risk across Central

  Alabama.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This afternoon through Tuesday)

Issued at 146 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026



A rather mundane upper-level pattern is anticipated for most of

the next seven days, leading to a mostly "copy/paste" style

forecast across the region. By tomorrow, the stagnant low off to

our NE will finally get absorbed back into another upper-level

trough moving into the Ohio Valley. Once we lose the influence of

this low pressure, a more typical summertime pattern will

establish itself across the region, with diurnally driven showers

and thunderstorms becoming the focus for our rain activity.



Thankfully, afternoon high temperatures will remain relatively

stable over the next week, as no upper-level feature is able to

really establish itself over the area. Highs will continue to

range in the low to mid-90s, with humid conditions pushing heat

index values to between 95 and 100 degrees. While heat index

values will be elevated, the need for heat products is currently 

little to none, as we expect to remain below critical thresholds 

for most of the next seven days.



/44/



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1221 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026



The region will remain under the influence of a weak trough and

low pressure to our east, keeping afternoon thunderstorms in the

forecast. Thankfully, this activity will be scattered in nature,

and mainly limited to east of I-65. As such, BHM, EET, and AUO

will all carry PROB30 groups for TSRA through 06/01z, with

otherwise VFR conditions anticipated for the remainder of this

TAF period.



Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.



/44/



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally

above 50% through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and

storms are expected daily, with the greatest chances east of I-

65. Because of this, elevated fire weather concerns will remain

little to none over the next seven days.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     71  90  71  91 /  10  50  10  30 

Anniston    71  88  71  90 /  10  50  10  30 

Birmingham  73  89  73  90 /   0  30  10  30 

Tuscaloosa  73  92  74  93 /   0  20  10  20 

Calera      72  91  72  91 /   0  30  10  30 

Auburn      72  87  72  88 /  10  30  20  30 

Montgomery  74  92  73  93 /  10  30  10  20 

Troy        72  91  71  92 /  10  30  20  30 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION.../44/

AVIATION.../44/