FXUS64 KBMX 051723

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 1221 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026



- Heat: Humidity will push heat indices into the 95-100 degree

  range mid-week, creating a moderate heat risk across Central

  Alabama.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(Wednesday through next Tuesday)

Issued at 1122 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026



A mid to upper level low will continue to slide northeastward

through northern Georgia. Drier air will remain across the west,

while better moisture will be in place across the east, closer to

the upper low and its wrap-around. This will help maintain a 20-

60% chance for showers and storms again Wednesday

afternoon/evening. By Thursday, the low will begin to drift

north, eventually being absorbed by another approaching upper

level trough moving across the Ohio Valley. A more typical

summertime pattern sets up the weekend with weak flow aloft,

leading to diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms into early

next week.



Patchy fog is anticipated near sunrise Wednesday morning as dew

point depressions decrease. Visibility restrictions are most

likely in areas that received rainfall this afternoon.



Temperatures will trend warmer through the week, with highs

reaching the low to mid 90s through the weekend. High confidence

exists that humid conditions will push max heat indices to 95-

100 degrees, creating a moderate heat risk across Central

Alabama.



16



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1221 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026



The region will remain under the influence of a weak trough and

low pressure to our east, keeping afternoon thunderstorms in the

forecast. Thankfully, this activity will be scattered in nature,

and mainly limited to east of I-65. As such, BHM, EET, and AUO

will all carry PROB30 groups for TSRA through 06/01z, with

otherwise VFR conditions anticipated for the remainder of this

TAF period.



Note: AMD NOT SKED for AUO due to a weather observation outage.



/44/



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Warm and humid conditions will help keep MinRH values generally

above 50% through the week. Isolated to scattered showers and

storms are expected daily, with the greatest chances east of I-

65. Because of this, elevated fire weather concerns will remain

little to none over the next seven days.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     71  90  71  91 /  10  50  10  30 

Anniston    71  88  71  90 /  10  50  10  30 

Birmingham  73  89  73  90 /   0  30  10  30 

Tuscaloosa  73  92  74  93 /   0  20  10  20 

Calera      72  91  72  91 /   0  30  10  30 

Auburn      72  87  72  88 /  10  30  20  30 

Montgomery  74  92  73  93 /  10  30  10  20 

Troy        72  91  71  92 /  10  30  20  30 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...16

AVIATION.../44/