FXUS64 KBMX 031737

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

1237 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Friday night)

Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025



As we move into the evening skies will clear from the scattered 

fair weather cumulus in the southeast. Any outdoor fireworks 

tonight should have no issues as temperatures will be in the mid 

to upper 70s areawide, with little to no wind. The drier air that 

is place will allow temperatures to drop into the middle to upper 

60s for much of the area as well. 



For the 4th of July, a typical summertime weather will be in place 

for all of the celebratory events through the day and night. 

Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s by the afternoon. With 

these temperatures, a stray shower/storm can not be ruled out for 

the areas from I-20 and points south. However, best chances, still 

only isolated, will be in the southeast generally south of I-85. 

Nothing to cancel any plans as any activity would be brief. Most, if 

not all of the activity should be finished by 8 to 9 pm, so most 

firework displays should be good to go. 



16



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Saturday through next Wednesday)

Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025



Moisture continues to stream in from the south through the 

weekend. The increase in moisture should be enough to keep 

temperatures getting much warmer with afternoon highs generally in

the low to mid 90s, average for this time of year. Rain chances 

increase slowly through the weekend, with the best chances still 

in the southeast. By Monday we should begin to see more scattered 

afternoon activity anywhere across the area. This pattern remains 

through early next week as a front once again tries to work 

southward toward the Tennessee Valley and southerly flow 

increasing moisture from the south. A few stronger storms could 

certainly be plausible Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. By 

Tuesday night we will most likely be in a northwest flow aloft 

regime, so we will need to monitor for late evening/overnight MCS 

complexes to move in the rest of the period. 



16



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1236 PM CDT THU JUL 3 2025



VFR conditions are anticipated for this entire TAF period.



NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until 

further notice due to comms issues.



16



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Overall a dry forecast for most of the area this holiday weekend. A 

few isolated showers/storms may develop in the southeast Friday and 

Saturday with a better chance on Sunday, but still the hit and miss 

summertime variety. Min RH will remain well above critical 

thresholds through the weekend, with generally light winds. There 

are no fire weather concerns at this time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     67  94  70  93 /   0  10   0  10 

Anniston    68  92  70  92 /   0  10   0  10 

Birmingham  69  94  73  93 /   0  10   0  10 

Tuscaloosa  70  94  73  94 /   0  10   0  10 

Calera      70  93  72  93 /   0  10   0  10 

Auburn      72  91  72  91 /   0  20   0  20 

Montgomery  71  94  72  93 /   0  20  10  20 

Troy        70  92  71  92 /   0  20  10  20 



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...16

LONG TERM....16

AVIATION...16