FXUS64 KBMX 021801

AFDBMX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Birmingham AL

1201 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 1200 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026



 - Widespread showers return late Tuesday afternoon through

   Wednesday. No hazardous weather or abnormally cold temperatures

   are expected for the period.



 - Long-range guidance trends are indicating a significant and

   much warmer pattern change in store for the area. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

(This evening through Sunday) 

Issued at 1200 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026



The "heat wave" is beginning, even though it will be briefly

interrupted on Thursday behind a cold front moving through

Wednesday. Fairly widespread rain will begin to enter the

northwestern portions of the area late Tuesday afternoon and then

slide through during the day on Wednesday. The front will slowly

move across the area until a second shortwave can slide down and

kick the front further east out of our domain. Only minimal

instability will be available with this front so rain is really

the only impact we will see with this system. A return to the 50s

and 60s is expected on Friday through the weekend along with

return to southerly flow. Long-range guidance trends are 

indicating a significant and much warmer pattern change across 

the U.S. by the week of February 9th. The Climate Prediction Center

is currently forecasting a high chance for much of the Deep South

to observe above normal temperatures during this period. 



16



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1200 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026



VFR conditions through the cycle with winds 10 kts or less from

the SW this afternoon. 



16



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Winds have shifted to the southwest. We should still see RH values

low this afternoon, but then increase substantially this evening

and Tuesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. Widespread 

rain showers are expected late Tuesday afternoon through 

Wednesday afternoon, with rainfall amounts generally less than 

one-half inch on average. Rain-free conditions will return 

Thursday and remain through the weekend, with no critical fire 

weather conditions currently anticipated.





&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Gadsden     26  58  40  47 /   0  70  90  10 

Anniston    30  59  43  48 /   0  50 100  10 

Birmingham  33  59  41  47 /   0  70 100  10 

Tuscaloosa  32  59  39  47 /   0  80  90   0 

Calera      30  61  42  49 /   0  60 100  10 

Auburn      32  60  48  53 /   0  10 100  40 

Montgomery  31  65  49  55 /   0  20 100  30 

Troy        31  65  51  57 /   0  10  90  50



&&



.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION...16

AVIATION...16