FXUS64 KBMX 020633 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 133 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 128 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025 Mid-level water vapor imagery shows a large zone of dry air advecting southward into the Tennessee Valley. Per surface obs, the cold front is near the southern portions of the area, so dry air will begin to filter in throughout the day. Most of the residual moisture will be focused across our far south and southeast where some isolated to scattered showers or storms may develop this afternoon, but it really looks like most of the area will stay dry as subsidence begins to increase with a broad ridge building to our west. It's summertime so don't get excited about this frontal passage. It was more of a dry air front than anything, so temperatures will still be hot today with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Sunny and hot conditions are expected on Thursday with the ridge axis centered over the Plains and ArkLaTex region. 86/Martin && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 128 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025 A slight warming trend will begin on Friday as the ridge axis slowly drifts eastward promoting dry conditions and rising 1000-850mb thicknesses. Expect temperatures to warm into the mid 90s Friday through the weekend with overnight lows in the lower 70s. There should be some mixing during the afternoon which will keep humidity levels down compared to what they have been lately, so heat indices will should remain below Heat Advisory criteria, but continue to exercise some caution while spending time outdoors as indices may reach 100F at times each afternoon. A cutoff low will also develop over the Mid-Atlantic region over the weekend, drifting westward through early next week. There's still model differences on the evolution of this feature, and it may not have much moisture to work with as it translates westward, so time will tell on whether or not it will have much of an appreciable change on our rain chances, but there will be an uptick in routine afternoon activity on Monday and Tuesday. 86/Martin && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2025 Low ceilings have developed at some of the northern TAF sites early this morning. Expect this low cloud deck to expand over much of the area within the next few hours with some patchy fog expected as well. This will lead to IFR conditions at times early in this period, but conditions will improve quickly after sunrise as dry air filters into the area behind a cold front. Expect mainly some passing high-level clouds during the afternoon. Winds will be light today, but have shifted to the west-northwest. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 86/Martin && .FIRE WEATHER... A cold front is situated to our south, and dry air will begin to filter in to the area. Min RH will remain well above critical thresholds, ranging from 50% in the north to 70% in the south. Winds will be light with a northwesterly component. The drier air will become more widespread by tomorrow with RH ranging from 45-55% during the afternoon. Dry and hot conditions are expected to continue through the week, but soil conditions remain quite saturated and there are no fire weather concerns at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 90 67 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 Anniston 88 67 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 89 68 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Calera 89 69 91 70 / 10 0 0 0 Auburn 88 70 91 71 / 30 0 10 0 Montgomery 89 70 91 70 / 30 0 0 0Troy 88 69 91 70 / 40 10 10 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86/Martin LONG TERM....86/Martin AVIATION...86/Martin