FXUS64 KAMA 090520 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1220 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 -Slight chance of showers storms in the western Panhandles today. No severe weather expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday night) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 Isolated showers and storms across eastern NM and the southwest Panhandle today. Upper level shortwave continues on a north to south path along the lee side of the Rockies, which will aid in the shower and storm development. To the east we have an upper level trough that will dive down over the Mississippi Valley and become a large scale cutoff low that lingers for the next several days. This will keep the large scale high pressure stalled over the western CONUS. We'll be in the low 70s today as a result of this stalled out upper low, keeping that much warmer air pushed off to the west. Additionally, it will be a slow climb of temperatures each day into early next week, with highs tomorrow maybe up 1 to 3 degrees from today. As far as precipitation tomorrow, since the trough will be transitioning into a closed low, there's a little bit of a wave that may clip the eastern Panhandles in the afternoon, that could trigger a pop up shower or storm. Right now no pops in the forecast, but may be worthy of a 10 percent chance as we head into tomorrow. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The slow and gradual warming will continue through the weekend, and maybe some areas manage to reach 80 by Sunday. This is due to the continued stalled out low over the Mississippi Valley keeping that broad scale high at bay over the western CONUS. The low is finally expected to kick out Monday next week, and we can expect widespread 80s on Monday and we will peak on Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Another large scale trough will move into the Pacific northwest Sunday evening which is what helps nudge everything along, from the high over the west to the low over the Mississippi Valley. This trough will dive down over the Great Basin area mid next week, and that will bring a couple rounds of weak, dry cold fronts on Wednesday and Thursday. This will cut highs back to the 80s on Wednesday and then the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Weber && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Winds will be variable at night and generally out of the east-northeast at 10 kts or less during the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 46 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Beaver OK 76 44 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Boise City OK 71 41 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Borger TX 76 48 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 Boys Ranch TX 73 45 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Canyon TX 70 45 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clarendon TX 72 49 75 47 / 0 0 0 0 Dalhart TX 71 41 75 43 / 0 0 0 0 Guymon OK 75 43 78 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hereford TX 70 44 74 44 / 0 0 0 0 Lipscomb TX 76 46 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Pampa TX 72 47 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Shamrock TX 74 48 76 46 / 10 0 0 0 Wellington TX 73 49 75 46 / 10 0 0 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...52