FXUS64 KAMA 051745 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 - Low/Medium chance 20-40% of showers and storms later this evening in the northwest Panhandles. Low chance 5-14% for severe storms with damaging winds being the primary concern. - Medium chance ~40% for thunderstorms in the northeast Panhandles on Thursday. - Hot temperatures to return this weekend with highs likely in the 100 to 108 range. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 An elongated high pressure remains across the southern plains causing a generally northwest flow over the panhandles through Thursday. This setup will allow for small scale weather system to impact the panhandles. This introduces a low to medium chances for rain showers and thunderstorms for both days mainly during the late afternoon and evening. Today the thunderstorms favor impacting the northwestern panhandles while on Thursday the northeastern panhandles is more favored. As for the rest of the panhandles the chances for thunderstorms are just to low to be reflected within the current forecast. There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with the main threat being strong winds from dry microbursts. Brief heavy rainfall can occur with these storms, flooding chances are very low but not zero. The dominant high pressure system will continue to cause hot temperatures across the panhandles with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. The hottest spots such a Palo Duro Canyon can see high temperatures reach 105 this afternoon leading to increased heat risk. As such a Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon during the afternoon to early evening hours. Be sure to stay hydrated to stave off any heat illness. Since Thursday will see similar environmental conditions there is a high chance for similar levels of heat and associated impacts. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 There is a high chance for the high pressure system to remain the dominant weather feature across the southern plains for the rest of the week and into next week. Thursday and Friday the position of the high will most likely be to the west of the southern plans leading to a more northwesterly over the southern plains. This will allow for a low chance for rain showers and thunderstorms each day as small scale weather system can pass across the panhandles. Temperatures will most likely remain hot as the high pressure continues to heat the southern plains. For the weekend and into early next week the high pressure has higher chances than not to reposition to be more over the southern plains. This would prevent the passage of weather system keep the panhandles on the drier side. Still this would indicate that the heating would be higher during this time. So there can be an uptick in the temperatures for this weekend and early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 VFR conditions expected to prevail at all TAF sites, with few-bkn mid to high clouds. Exception to VFR conditions will be KDHT in the 0-3z time frame, as we do have a PROB 30 group for thunderstorms. Overall winds in the 15kt gusting 25kt range and will mainly be out of the south, but may shift northwesterly in the 02-06z time frame. Weber && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ317. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...89