FXUS64 KAMA 030653 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 153 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Continued shower and thunderstorm chances for the next seven days. However, chances each day will vary across the CWA. Heat index values may approach or exceed 100 degrees for certain location on Saturday. The Palo Duro Canyon currently has a high chance to exceed 100 degree apparent temperatures Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday night) Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 The main idea (BLUF) of the short term period continues to focus on thunderstorm chances. Convection will mostly correlate with day time heating, but forcing from the Rocky Mountains tomorrow and a shortwave trough Friday night will aid in thunderstorms from the west prolong beyond sunset. Tomorrow CAPE values will be sufficient enough for scattered thunderstorms to form along a strong Theta-E gradient over the Southern Plains and portions of the Texas Panhandle. Organized convection is still not a concern as other environment parameters are lacking for the production of severe storms. However, forecast Skew-T profiles continue to highlight our concerns for flooding. Tomorrow, PoPs are not as wide spread due to most of the favorable moisture shifting further east. Later in the evening, some CAMs do show a small band of shower forming off of an incoming boundary from the north and colliding along the axis of a trough/pseudo- dryline in the Oklahoma Panhandle. These storms have a chance to linger into Saturday as the continue to move into areas of higher moisture. Rangel && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 105 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 At the forefront of the extended, the upper level dynamics expand the H500 high further east. Heights should steadily rise during this timeframe and we will begin to see a new high pressure center form over the Rockies in the Four Corners region. This pattern looks to remain in place for the rest of the long term period. Long range models continue to show an increase in surface temperatures heading into next week. However, passing shortwaves and projected cloud coverage should keep high temperatures in the upper 80's and 90's. Still, heat index is becoming a concern give how high RH values continue to be. Some places in the CWA, namely PDC, may feel like 100 degrees starting Saturday. High moisture profiles are expected to remain across the CWA as we enter back into a northwest flow pattern. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances should continue, but the coverage of this convection may stay mostly isolated, while occasionally becoming scattered. As forecast PWAT values continue to stay well above normal for this time of year, chances of isolated flooding from thunderstorms remain high. Rangel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 MVFR ceilings are expected to advance into AMA from the south early this morning. Ceilings may even boarder near IFR flight rules as they continue to drop, but we do not expected them to prevail as such for any meaningful amount of time. Winds will pick up speed and all sites and stay breezy from the south through the afternoon and evening today. Thunderstorms are possible at AMA this afternoon and could last into the night. Meanwhile, a different wave of thunderstorms are forecast to impact DHT much later in the 06Z TAF period. GUY should stay clear during this timeframe, since chances of thunderstorms impacting the TAF site are much lower than at AMA and DHT. Rangel && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....55 AVIATION...55