FXUS63 KUNR 271720

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

1120 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain and high elevation snow showers today for much of the area.

  A few rumbles of thunder are also possible across western SD



- Drying out for the mid week



&&



.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)

Issued at 402 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



08z upper air analysis shows upper trof axis centered over the 

Rockies. Lead shortwave is making its way through the CWA with 

light rain falling across western SD. Rain showers will continue 

to move through the region this morning as the cold front slowly 

makes its way across the CWA. Colder air aloft pushes into the 

region this afternoon with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates

as a result. The marginal instability will support chances for a 

few rumbles of thunder across western SD this afternoon. As colder

air arrives, rain will transition to snow across the Black Hills.

With the recent warm weather and thus warm ground temps, 

accumulations should be minimal with perhaps an inch or so of 

slushy accumulation across the higher elevations. Another wave 

will skirt the region later this evening into the overnight hours.

It looks like the bulk of the forcing will be south of the CWA 

but a few light snow showers could develop over northeastern WY 

later this evening.



The wave moving through tonight will strengthen and transition to

an upper low and dig to the southeast of the CWA. As it does so, 

weak upper ridging will build into the region for the mid-week 

bringing drier conditions to the CWA though temperatures will 

remain seasonable with highs in the upper 40s to 50s. The next 

system looks to be an upper level wave/low passing to the north of

the region late Wed/Thurs. Current guidance isn't showing much 

moisture associated with this system, with the sensible weather 

impacts mainly being breezy conditions on Thursday and slightly 

cooler weather for Friday.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)

Issued At 1113 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



An area of low pressure is located in central SD with a cold front

draped northeast to southwest through the dakotas. Scattered -shra

will be found along and behind the front as it moves east through

the region...along with MVFR cigs/vsbys in -shra/br. Pockets of

light snow are possible in the higher elevations of the Black

Hills. Gusty NW winds will also be found behind the front, where

winds could gust to 35 kts. Conditions will improve overnight as 

drier air moves in from the northwest. 



It will be breezy again on Tuesday with NW winds gusting to 25 to

35 kts. 



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong

AVIATION...Hintz