FXUS63 KUNR 271050

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

450 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain and high elevation snow showers today for much of the area.

  A few rumbles of thunder are also possible across western SD



- Drying out for the mid week



&&



.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)

Issued at 402 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



08z upper air analysis shows upper trof axis centered over the 

Rockies. Lead shortwave is making its way through the CWA with 

light rain falling across western SD. Rain showers will continue 

to move through the region this morning as the cold front slowly 

makes its way across the CWA. Colder air aloft pushes into the 

region this afternoon with steepening low to mid-level lapse rates

as a result. The marginal instability will support chances for a 

few rumbles of thunder across western SD this afternoon. As colder

air arrives, rain will transition to snow across the Black Hills.

With the recent warm weather and thus warm ground temps, 

accumulations should be minimal with perhaps an inch or so of 

slushy accumulation across the higher elevations. Another wave 

will skirt the region later this evening into the overnight hours.

It looks like the bulk of the forcing will be south of the CWA 

but a few light snow showers could develop over northeastern WY 

later this evening.



The wave moving through tonight will strengthen and transition to

an upper low and dig to the southeast of the CWA. As it does so, 

weak upper ridging will build into the region for the mid-week 

bringing drier conditions to the CWA though temperatures will 

remain seasonable with highs in the upper 40s to 50s. The next 

system looks to be an upper level wave/low passing to the north of

the region late Wed/Thurs. Current guidance isn't showing much 

moisture associated with this system, with the sensible weather 

impacts mainly being breezy conditions on Thursday and slightly 

cooler weather for Friday.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Tuesday Morning)

Issued At 446 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025



Widespread MVFR/LCL IFR conditions through this morning into the

afternoon as -SHRA move through the area. Light snow showers are 

possible across the higher elevations of the Black Hills this 

afternoon. Conditions will improve later this afternoon into 

the evening.



Breezy northwest winds will develop across the area later this

morning, especially over the western SD plains where gusts of 25 

to 35 kt are expected.



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong

AVIATION...Wong