FXUS63 KUNR 221827

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

1227 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry and above average temperatures Monday through Wednesday with

  elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions; warmest and

  dries Wednesday ahead of a cold front.



- Cold front to bring more seasonable temperatures Thursday along

  with light showers.



- Trending mild and dry again Friday into next weekend with

  elevated fire weather conditions likely.



&&



.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)

Issued at 1224 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Upper trough axis continues to shift east of the 

forecast area as subsidence and drying overspreads the Northern 

Plains. Surface high pressure is centered over central ND and 

continues to drift eastward. Expansive low clouds cover the CWA 

now, although cloud cover is slowly eroding. These low clouds 

will continue to erode through the day with a mix of clouds and 

sun through the afternoon. Highs will push into the 40s to low 

50s.



Southwestern upper ridge re-establishes itself over the next few 

days with thermal ridge overspreading the forecast area through 

Wednesday. While not as warm as this past week, above normal 

temperatures are expected (upper 50s to around 70) with elevated to 

near-critical fire weather conditions. Warmest day of the week 

Wednesday with widespread 70s and low 80s likely along and south of 

I-90. A cold front pushes through overnight Wednesday, bringing 

cooler, yet seasonable temperatures Thursday and spotty light 

showers. Above average temperatures return next weekend as upper 

flow turns southwesterly. Models currently show potential for a 

deeper western trough latter half of next weekend into the 

following week, although considerable uncertainty remains 

regarding sensible weather impacts locally.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)

Issued At 1121 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026



MVFR/IFR CIGS across western SD (and locally IFR VSBY in the Black 

Hills area) will continue through early this afternoon. Conditions 

are expected to improve to VFR quickly in the mid/late afternoon and 

remain through the rest of the forecast period.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued At 1224 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Temperatures will warm back into the 60s and 70s 

Monday and Tuesday with elevated fire weather conditions across the 

area. Gusty southerly winds Monday across south-central SD into the 

western SD plains will support elevated fire weather conditions, 

although relative humidity will be above critical (20-30 percent). 

Regardless, dry fuels and strong winds will result in at least high 

grassland fire danger. Lighter winds Tuesday will moderate fire 

weather potential, although warm temperatures and low humidity (15-

25 percent) will result in continued elevated conditions.



Warmest day expected Wednesday with widespread 70s and low 80s 

(mainly along and south of I-90) with gusty westerly winds ahead of 

another cold front. Best chances of critical conditions across NE WY 

plains into southwestern SD. Cold front will shift winds northwest 

overnight Wednesday with spotty light precipitation possible, 

although minimal amounts. Temperatures quickly rebound Friday into 

next weekend with continued elevated to near-critical conditions.



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...SE

AVIATION...13

FIRE WEATHER...SE