FXUS63 KUNR 051946

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

146 PM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Wildfire smoke will linger over the area through Thursday night

  and for the far western counties, the smoke could linger into

  Friday.



- Mainly dry this week with very little, if any, chances for rain

  The exception to this is south-central SD where showers and

  storms are possible late Thursday afternoon and again Friday

  night.



- Hot weather returns tomorrow with the hot, highs in the 90s 

  last into the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...(This Afternoon Through Tuesday)

Issued at 1156 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026



It has been another day of sunny but hazy/smokey skies over the 

CWA. The smoke had a little bit of an impact to the air quality 

with sensors reaching the Moderate stage as of the early 

afternoon. Looking ahead, afternoon temps will be in the 70s to

80s with continued sunny, buy hazy, skies. Tonight will be calm

and clear with overnight temps dipping into the 50s to lower 60s.



For Thursday and Friday, upper level ridging looks to return to

the area, which will bring warmer temps and continued mostly dry 

weather. Daily highs will be in the upper 80s to 90s and overnight

lows will be in the 50s to low 60s. Temps that warm and very

little moisture will cause RH values to drop to around 10 to 20

percent. A passing front will cause northwest winds to increase 

Thursday. That combination of stronger winds and low humidity will

elevate fire weather conditions. Because of that, a Red Flag

Warning has been issued. See the Fire Weather section below for

more information.



There are a couple chances for rain on Thursday and again Friday.

The previously mentioned front could be the trigger to get some 

thunderstorms going in south-central SD Thursday afternoon. Some 

of those storms could be strong to severe with hail and wind being

main concerns if the storms are able to get going. Another round 

of storms is possible Friday night for parts of central SD.



The 90s and mostly dry weather will last through the weekend with

hints of slightly cooler weather for the start of next week.

Storms and severe weather is a concern as the forecasted wind

pattern has been known to produce storms and severe weather and 

machine learning severe weather models are targeting the Black 

Hills with elevated chances of severe storms beginning Saturday.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Thursday)

Issued At 1120 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026



VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued At 1156 AM MDT Wed Aug 5 2026



A Red Flag Warning has been issued for parts of NW SD and far SW

SD. It will go into effect Thursday at 11AM MDT and is set to

expire at 8PM MDT.



Hot and dry weather begins to move back into the area tomorrow. 

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected beginning tomorrow

afternoon for parts of the SD plains. Low humidity, down to near 

10 to 20% for those in the western part of the CWA, is possible.

And with an incoming front, wind speeds and gusts will increase.

With the increased wind speeds and lowered RH values, the Red Flag

Warning was issued.



Friday and the weekend looks like conditions could be elevated 

but low confidence of reaching Red Flag Warning thresholds.



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Thursday for SDZ322-327.

WY...&&



$$



DISCUSSION...GS

AVIATION...Helgeson

FIRE WEATHER...GS