FXUS63 KUNR 032036

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

136 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snow over the northern Black Hills tapers and ends this

  evening, leaving totals of 1-3" in some locations



- Well-above-average temperatures and mostly dry conditions 

  through this weekend



- Thursday may bring record warmth





&&



.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)

Issued at 140 PM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Water vapor imagery this afternoon betrays the presence of a

amplified ridge over the West Coast and northwest flow over the

Northern Plains. A cutoff low spins over the Great Lakes. 



Temperatures this afternoon have fallen shy of the past few days.

Widespread fog east of the Black Hills this morning has retreated

east, but stratus remains for most locations. Scattered showers of

both rain and snow continue to fall in Black Hills and just

southeast of the Hills where confluent flow provides a little

extra forcing for ascent. 



.TONIGHT...



The shortwave responsible for the scattered showers will continue

to push southeast, allowing showers to taper and end with the last

few snowflakes falling in south-central South Dakota before 

sunrise. Fog may develop in the vicinity of the Missouri River, 

but visibility should be impacted little to none in western SoDak

and eastern Wyoming.



.WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...



H5 ridging noses over the the CWA mid-week, opening the door to 

even warmer temps. Expect mostly 50s for Wednesday with 60s being

called for over the plains by Thursday afternoon with the WAA 

abetted by sunny skies and westerly winds. Temps in the eastern 

foothills may manage 70 with the downsloping winds. 



Current Records



67 in 1963 | RC Downtown

63 in 2024 | RC Airport

68 in 1963 | Philip

51 in 2009 | Custer



.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...



A cold front will push through the area on Thursday night or

Friday leaving Friday about ten degrees cooler, though still well

above normal. The ridging overhead becomes less defined and

trends toward a more zonal pattern by the weekend which could 

bring a period of seasonal temperatures and better opportunities 

for wetting precipitation. 



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)

Issued At 1023 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Areas MVFR/IFR conditions along/east of a K2WX-KVTN line will 

improve this afternoon. Over northeastern WY/far western SD, a mix

of rain/snow is expected with local IFR conditions, especially 

in/near the Black Hills. However, downslope flow will keep the

probability of lowered flight conditions for KRAP low. Additional

IFR CIGS will move into the area along/east of a line from K2WX-

KICR after 04/06z as an area of stratus/potential fog moves in 

overnight.



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Nicolaisen

AVIATION...Helgeson