FXUS63 KUNR 031728

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

1028 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light snow over the northern Black Hills today with

  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for most spots



- Above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions through

  this weekend



&&



.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)

Issued at 310 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Current upper air analysis has upper level ridge axis over the 

West Coast with broad troughing over the eastern half of the US. 

Upper level wave is making its way across eastern MT/southern AB. 

Closer to home, nighttime microphysics imagery depicts area of low

clouds/fog across much of western SD. Have added patchy fog 

mention to the forecast for northwestern SD after looking at 

webcams and airport obs in the area. While the low stratus will 

likely make it to the Black Hills through early this morning, not 

expecting any fog.



Main story today will be the potential for accumulating snow in 

the northern Black Hills. Aforementioned upper wave will cross the

region today. Adequate moisture and modest forcing will support 

light precip over much of northeastern WY into western SD. Precip 

should move in early this morning with temperatures cold enough 

for snow to fall. As we warm up through the day, snow will 

transition to rain across the lower elevations of the plains but 

the Black Hills should remain cold enough for snow. The moist, 

northwest flow will support upslope snow over the northern Black 

Hills. In terms of how much snow, models have come down a bit on 

the QPF and thus the snow totals. In addition, this snow will be 

falling during the day with daytime temperatures at or slightly 

below the freezing mark. Therefore have knocked down snow totals 

slightly. Much of the northern Black Hills should see at least an 

inch of snow with the higher elevations seeing up to 3 to 5 

inches. Given the limited coverage of the higher snow totals, 

opted to not issue a Winter Weather Advisory.



After today, the upper level ridge over the western US will 

continue to influence weather over our neck of the woods into this

weekend. High temperatures across much of the CWA will be 10-20F 

above average with slightly cooler conditions towards central SD. 

Thursday's looking to be particularly warm with highs climbing 

into the 60s over the western SD plains.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)

Issued At 1023 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026



Areas MVFR/IFR conditions along/east of a K2WX-KVTN line will 

improve this afternoon. Over northeastern WY/far western SD, a mix

of rain/snow is expected with local IFR conditions, especially 

in/near the Black Hills. However, downslope flow will keep the

probability of lowered flight conditions for KRAP low. Additional

IFR CIGS will move into the area along/east of a line from K2WX-

KICR after 04/06z as an area of stratus/potential fog moves in 

overnight.



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong

AVIATION...Helgeson