FXUS63 KUNR 022320

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

520 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



-General westerly flow through the period will support average to

 above average temperatures with chances for storms at times in 

 the period



-Hot and breezy Thursday, cooler this weekend



&&



.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Wednesday)

Issued at 104 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Mean eastern Pac trough will support semi-unsettled westerly flow

over the region through the period. Weak impulses will traverse 

the flow bringing near daily chances for showers and storms in 

parts of the FA, with best coverage expected Friday and Saturday 

(albeit still scattered). Weak impulse will traverse the far NW FA

tonight and support isolated TS there. Otherwise, dry and mild 

tonight most places. Thermal ridge will shift east over the region

Thur, ahead of a lee-side trough, and support breezy southerly 

winds with deep mixing. Highs will be in the 90s to lower 100s 

most places on the Plains. Deep mixing will bring dry air down to 

the sfc and allow for apparent temps below actual temps. Hence, 

will not issue any heat headlines with apparent T's mainly in the

90s. Lee side trough will kick off a few TS in the far west late 

in the afternoon, with activity progressing slowly northeast in a 

waning fashion through evening. Cooler and more moist for the 

weekend, with unsettled flow continuing. Weaker capping should 

allow for better coverage of showers/storms, but no more than 

scattered coverage. Seasonal and semi-unsettled flow can then be 

expected next week, with highs generally in the 80s and 90s, and 

isolated to scattered storms at times.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Thursday Evening)

Issued At 518 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Expect isolated -TSRA over northeastern WY/Black Hills this 

evening, shifting northeast overnight. Outside of -TSRA, VFR 

conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty southerly winds

will develop on the western SD plains Thursday.



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC

AVIATION...Helgeson