FXUS63 KUNR 021746

AFDUNR



Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY

National Weather Service Rapid City SD

1046 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Patchy fog over northwestern into south central SD this morning



- Gusty northwest winds will develop this afternoon, the strongest

  winds will be over northwest SD with gusts of 40 to 45 mph.



- Light accumulating snow over the Northern Black Hills on Tuesday



- Above average temperatures and mostly dry weather through the

  end of the week



&&



.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)

Issued at 256 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



Nighttime microphysics imagery depicts swath of fog/low clouds 

extending from ND into eastern SD. The fog is slowly creeping into

our half of SD with the KLEM station near the SD/ND border 

reporting low clouds and decreasing visibilities over the past

couple of hours. Patchy fog should continue to develop over 

northwestern into south central SD through this morning, though 

it's appearing less likely that the fog will make it as far as the

Black Hills with most recent forecast soundings showing a very 

shallow moist layer near the sfc. Any fog that develops will erode

by late this morning as upper level shortwave crosses the region.



Winds will shift to the northwest late this morning as the 

attendant sfc front pushes across the CWA. Weak pressure rises 

behind the trof will support breezy winds with BUFKIT momentum 

transfer showing the potential for gusts of 40-45kt to mix to the 

sfc across northwestern SD. NBM probs show a 40-70% chance for 

wind gusts to exceed 45 mph across our usual windy spots along the

Sturgis/Piedmont foothills and adjacent plains with hi-res 

deterministic models showing gusts of 40-45 mph. Given the low 

confidence in if gusts will reach advisory level, have opted to 

hold off on issuing any headlines. In terms of precip - not 

expecting too much out of this system as the bulk of the lift and 

moisture will be displaced to our east. However, upslope flow 

could support some light snow showers over the northern Black 

Hills this afternoon with minimal accumulations expected.



Another shortwave will cross the region Tuesday, this time the 

moisture and weak large scale forcing will be present over the 

CWA. This will support light precip over northeastern WY into 

western SD through the day and into the evening on Tuesday. 

Temperatures over the plains will be too warm for snow (40-50F) 

but thermal profiles over the Black Hills should support snow. 

Upslope enhancement will support 1 to 3" of accumulation across 

the higher elevations of the northern Black Hills. 



Upper level ridge over the western US will continue to influence 

weather over our neck of the woods into this weekend. High 

temperatures across much of the CWA will be 10-20F above average 

with slightly cooler conditions towards central SD. Thursday's 

looking to be particularly warm with highs climbing into the 60s 

over the western SD plains.



&&



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)

Issued At 1040 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



VFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period with 

gusty northwest winds diminishing this evening. A weather system

will enter far western SD and northeast WY after 12Z Tuesday

morning, bringing light snow and IFR conditions to those areas. 



&&



.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...None.

WY...None.

&&



$$



DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Wong

AVIATION...15