FXUS63 KTOP 271915 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 215 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... -Another round of rain arrives tonight/Tuesday with a cold front. -Strong winds develop behind the front into midweek, with additional rain chances for some locations. -Frost will be possible later in the week as much cooler air moves in. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Early this afternoon an upper trough was digging southeast across the central Rookies. A closed southern stream upper low was located across the central and lower MS River Valley. At the surface a ridge of surface high pressured extended from the Great Lake States, southwest into eastern NE and northeast KS. Weak isentropic ascent was causing low clouds with occasional patchy drizzle. Temperatures at 1 PM were only in the mid 50s. Tonight through Wednesday: The upper trough across the central Rockies will dig southeast across the Plains on Tuesday, amplifying into a closed upper low across northeast AR late Tuesday night. As the upper trough approaches the Plains, DCVA ahead of the H5 trough axis will provide ascent along with isentropic lift for periods of rain to develop after midnight across the CWA. There may still be some patchy drizzle through the evening hours, mainly across north central and northeast KS. A cold front will push southeast across the CWA Tuesday morning. Winds behind the front will increase to 15 to 25 MPH from the north- northwest. Winds gusts will increase during the late morning hours to 30 to 40 MPH. SREF ensembles have a less that 15 percent chance across the southern counties of the CWA for wind gusts to reach near 45 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours. ATTM, the wind gusts should remain below 45 MPH. The windy conditions will continue through the night and into Wednesday morning as the pressure gradient between a deepening surface low over southern AR and a surface ridge building southward across the high Plains causes the surface pressure gradient to remain tight. If we did not have the cloud cover Tuesday afternoon, we would see wind gusts of 45 to 50 MPH with deeper mixing, since northerly 850mb will increase around 50 KTS across eastern KS on Tuesday. But lapse rates being more moist diabatic will dampen any stronger winds from mixing down from 850mb. The steady rainfall will shift southeast of the area during the late afternoon and evening hours of Tuesday as the upper low shifts southeast into northeast AR. We may see light drizzle continuing through the night into early Wednesday morning. Total rainfall across northeast and east central KS will range from 0.4" to 0.6". North central KS will see a bit less rainfall with 0.25"-0.4". Through the day on Wednesday the skies should clear from west to east across the CWA. Highs Wednesday will only reach the lower to mid 50s even with some insolation. Wednesday night through Monday: Northwest mid level flow will continue through the period. Expect dry conditions. Highs will be in the 50s. During the early morning hours Thursday through Saturday, overnight lows will drop into the lower to mid 30s, so we may see areas of frost developing towards sunrise. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 107 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Expect the IFR to low VFR ceilings to continue through Tonight. When the steadier rain move across the terminals towards 12Z TUE, the visibilities may decrease to 2 to 4 SM and ceilings may decrease to LIFR. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Gargan AVIATION...Gargan