FXUS63 KTOP 270932

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

432 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Cool and damp weather continue today before another round of rain 

 arrives tonight/Tuesday with a cold front.



-Strong winds develop behind the front into midweek, with additional 

 rain chances for some locations.



-Frost will be possible later in the week as much cooler air

 moves in.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 428 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



This morning, the upper low that has caused cloudy and wet 

weather around the region continues to slowly move east, away 

from the area. Surface and low level winds remain out of the 

east and the boundary layer is nearly saturated. Surface obs 

show patchy drizzle and associated reduced visibilities 

occurring, which is expected to continue in scattered spots 

throughout the morning hours. By this afternoon, surface winds 

will take on more of a southerly component. Forecast soundings 

show slightly lower RH in the boundary layer and less lift, 

which should help to end drizzle. Cloud cover will remain and 

temperatures will likely only warm a few degrees into the mid 

and upper 50s.



The next system to impact the area is an amplified mid-level trough, 

approaching from the northwest today. An associated cold front will 

bring rain, windy conditions and cooler temperatures tomorrow and 

into midweek. Mid-level ascent behind the cold front will allow a 

batch of rain to develop and move from west to east across the 

forecast area late this evening and tonight. Rain will likely linger 

across far eastern KS Tuesday morning/midday. The system will then 

evolve into another closed low over the Heartland, inducing the 

rapid development of a surface low just east/southeast of the area. 

The resulting increase in the pressure gradient will cause windy 

conditions to develop Tuesday afternoon and continue on Wednesday. 

North winds sustained between 15 and 30 mph could gust to 40 mph at 

times. Another round of rain could also occur (30-50% chance) on 

Wednesday in eastern KS as a trough axis rotates around the closed 

low.



Northerly flow will advect a cooler airmass into the region as 

a large surface ridge builds into the central US. Temperatures 

drop into the low and mid 30s Wednesday night/early Thursday, 

and again Thursday night and Friday night. Areas of frost appear

possible across the region, especially Thursday night and 

Friday night when skies will be mainly clear and winds will be 

light.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025



IFR and some LIFR ceilings will remain likely Monday morning.

Reduced visibilities due to mist/drizzle will also be possible

through the morning. Any lingering mist/drizzle should end by 

midday with a bit of drying noted in lowest levels of forecast 

soundings. Otherwise, east winds will become a bit more

southeasterly, but should generally remain less than 10 kts.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Teefey

AVIATION...Teefey