FXUS63 KTOP 221933

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

233 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Windy this afternoon with a Red Flag Warning in place until 7pm



- Briefly cooler Monday, then warmth returns mid-week along with

  opportunities for elevated fire danger



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Mean westerlies aloft cover the northern two-thirds of the CONUS, 

having pushed the ridge down to the far southwestern US. Sfc cold 

front has made its way through the entire area, leaving behind gusty 

northerly winds in its wake. Conditions overall have been borderline 

for wind advisory and could make an argument either way to have one 

or not have one, with some occasional gusts up to 45mph. Opted to 

keep the headline going as is without making changes to timing or 

area. The main concern is the impact these winds will have on any 

fires this afternoon (see fire discussion for more details). 

Otherwise, expect the peak of the winds to be early/mid-afternoon at 

this point, gradually decreasing as we go through the rest of the 

day and especially this evening with sfc high pressure building 

southward.



Monday brings relatively cooler temperatures with the cooler air 

mass in place, though highs in the mid to upper 50s are actually 

close to average for this time of year. The near normal temperatures 

don't last long, however. The upper ridge then looks to expand back 

north as we head into mid-week. This leads to high temperatures back 

to the 70s on Tuesday and 80s, possibly a few 90s, on Wednesday. 

Timing of a cold front moving south on Thursday does still lead to 

some uncertainty with temperatures then, particularly for northern 

KS. A faster progression would lead to northern locations being on 

the cooler side of the range in the ensemble guidance, with greater 

spread in those areas. East central KS may still have enough time to 

warm into the 80s ahead of the boundary, but there is plenty of time 

for that to change in the next few days. Along with that frontal 

boundary comes low chances for precipitation Thursday night into 

Friday, but that will depend on moisture quality as well. QPF 

amounts look light in most solutions that have precip at all.



Outside of any precip, temperatures Friday cool back to near 

seasonal normals. This again looks brief with some warming into next 

weekend, though ensemble clusters vary on the strength of the ridge 

by this point, which leads to more uncertainty on exactly how warm 

it will be.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Winds will be at their strongest this afternoon with some gusts

to 30-40 kts early, then gradually decrease into late afternoon

and evening. There should be a more notable decrease around 

sunset, though it may take some time for both gusts and 

sustained wind to diminish completely this evening. Winds should

drop below 10 kts later tonight as high pressure slowly builds

south. VFR conditions otherwise.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Updated at 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 7pm today. Winds will be at 

their strongest this afternoon, sustained 20-30mph with most gusts 

between 35-40mph but a few gusts to 45mph will be possible at times 

for the next couple of hours. They should gradually decrease through 

the late afternoon and evening with some 20-25mph gusts persisting 

after sunset, then becoming lighter late tonight into early Monday. 

RH values likely bottom out around 30-35% this afternoon before 

recovering above 40% after 8-9pm. 



Elevated fire danger may return again Wednesday and Thursday with 

the return of warmer temperatures and low humidity. Early 

indications are that at least parts of the area could see RH fall to 

near or below 20% both days with more wind on Thursday. The timing 

of the cold front that day will play an important role in the timing 

of wind shifts and in how much warmth everyone will see, thus 

impacting RH.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-

KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-

KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-

KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ035-KSZ036-

KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Picha

AVIATION...Picha

FIRE WEATHER...Picha