FXUS63 KTOP 221724

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1224 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cold front brings strong winds and cooler temperatures today



- Red Flag Conditions today



- Warmth returns Wednesday and Thursday with another system

  moving through Thursday with a chance of precipitation and

  breezy conditions



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Breezy south to southwest winds have kept temperatures across

much of eastern Kansas well into the 70s as of this early

morning hour, but the incoming front for today is making quick

progress across Iowa and Nebraska. Still anticipate these winds

to move into the state around 12z and move quickly south.

Sustained winds in the 20-30 mph range are expected with gusts

30-35 in the eastern part of the state while approaching 40 

west of Topeka where a wind advisory is in place. A Red Flag

warning goes into effect today into this evening as the stronger

winds pass through.  Temperatures will fall with the front, 

eventually dropping back into the 30s in the late night hours as

the cooler airmass settles in. Winds diminish quickly in the 

evening hours. Highs hold in the 50s for Monday - which may be 

the only day with near climatological normal temperatures for 

this time of year. 



The ridge over the SW US rebounds quickly, bringing warmer

temperatures on its eastern periphery back into the state with 

70s Tuesday and 80s Wednesday, with 80s for Thursday but

depending on the speed of the next front could be an afternoon

of falling temperatures, strong winds, and a low chance for 

some precipitation Thursday night into Friday. 



Overall a pattern with a lot of shifting winds, variable

temperatures and not many days with precipitation chances, all

of which can impact fire weather concerns.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Winds will be at their strongest this afternoon with some gusts

to 30-40 kts early, then gradually decrease into late afternoon

and evening. There should be a more notable decrease around 

sunset, though it may take some time for both gusts and 

sustained wind to diminish completely this evening. Winds should

drop below 10 kts later tonight as high pressure slowly builds

south. VFR conditions otherwise.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Updated at 117 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026



Main story for today and impacts on fire are the incoming front.

South southwesterly winds early this morning will quickly switch

to north northeast and increase, with sustained winds in the

25-35 mph range and gusts of 35 to 45 for a time as the front 

passes. Stronger gusts west of Topeka has prompted a wind

advisory, and a Red Flag warning will go into effect at 9am and

continue into the evening. While RH values are near the 30

percent range, the strength of the winds and the shift in

direction prompted the RFW.



Winds diminish to below 10 mph from north to south through the 

evening hours.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ008-KSZ009-

KSZ010-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ034.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ008-KSZ009-

KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-

KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-

KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ035-KSZ036-

KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ054.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Craven

AVIATION...Picha

FIRE WEATHER...Craven