FXUS63 KTOP 122243

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

443 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cold temperatures through Sunday then mild for the early to middle 

  of next week.



- Small potential for light and brief freezing drizzle north of

  I-70 midday Saturday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



Modest north winds continue to bring in cooler air today with some 

areas of stratus in central and northern Kansas. Cold air advection 

subsides this evening with at least some clouds for lows around 20. 

Brief warm-air advection precedes a northwest flow wave traversing 

states to the northeast Saturday before stronger cold-air advection 

builds in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures may peak in the 

midday then fall with clouds building. Any measurable precipitation 

should stay well northeast, but there are some indications of 

freezing drizzle attempting to develop for a brief period around 

early Saturday afternoon. Soundings show a layer off the surface 

saturating up to a few thousand feet as isentropic lift ends. Most 

of the saturation occurs warmer than the ice crystal formation zone, 

though northern areas may see profile into this zone. With lift 

ending, saturation rather brief and shallow, and the near-surface 

layer still on the dry side, have left any mention of this out of 

the forecast. Downglide and drier air work in during the late 

afternoon and evening, ending any precipitation. Temperatures 

Saturday night still look on track to fall into the single digits to 

around 12 with wind chills around zero.



Warm air quickly returns early next week with strong 850 mb WAA 

Sunday night into Monday under zonal flow aloft. NBM temperature 

spreads are notable at this range but confidence is high in above 

normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Temperatures may 

moderate somewhat late in the week with some model consistency in an 

upper wave crossing the Plains though any precipitation chances 

remain quite low from Sunday through Friday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 443 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



Satellite imagery over the past couple hours has shown the MVFR CIGS

gradually expanding south. While the RAP has been overdone, think 

the trend of the MVFR CIGS sliding south should continue given the 

northerly low level trajectories. Continued low level dry air 

advection is expected to keep the CIGS at or above 2KFT, though there

is some small potential for CIGS to drop below 2KFT. IFR conditions 

are not anticipated due to the low level dry air advection. The CIGS 

look to remain over the terminals through Saturday before a secondary

surge of cold dry air pushes in Saturday evening. This should scour 

out the low level humidity. 



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Poage

AVIATION...Wolters