FXUS63 KTOP 122001

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

201 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cold temperatures through Sunday then mild for the early to middle 

  of next week.



- Small potential for light and brief freezing drizzle north of

  I-70 midday Saturday. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



Modest north winds continue to bring in cooler air today with some 

areas of stratus in central and northern Kansas. Cold air advection 

subsides this evening with at least some clouds for lows around 20. 

Brief warm-air advection precedes a northwest flow wave traversing 

states to the northeast Saturday before stronger cold-air advection 

builds in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures may peak in the 

midday then fall with clouds building. Any measurable precipitation 

should stay well northeast, but there are some indications of 

freezing drizzle attempting to develop for a brief period around 

early Saturday afternoon. Soundings show a layer off the surface 

saturating up to a few thousand feet as isentropic lift ends. Most 

of the saturation occurs warmer than the ice crystal formation zone, 

though northern areas may see profile into this zone. With lift 

ending, saturation rather brief and shallow, and the near-surface 

layer still on the dry side, have left any mention of this out of 

the forecast. Downglide and drier air work in during the late 

afternoon and evening, ending any precipitation. Temperatures 

Saturday night still look on track to fall into the single digits to 

around 12 with wind chills around zero.



Warm air quickly returns early next week with strong 850 mb WAA 

Sunday night into Monday under zonal flow aloft. NBM temperature 

spreads are notable at this range but confidence is high in above 

normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Temperatures may 

moderate somewhat late in the week with some model consistency in an 

upper wave crossing the Plains though any precipitation chances 

remain quite low from Sunday through Friday. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1143 AM CST Fri Dec 12 2025



Areas of broken MVFR stratus continue to ooze south into

northeast Kansas, and look to have at least temporary impacts at

all sites in the next several hours. This looks rather shallow

and guidance is quite varied on it, leaving confidence low. VFR

conditions look more likely after 03Z into the end of this

forecast though conditions may deteriorate again near 18Z.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Poage

AVIATION...Poage