FXUS63 KTOP 091831

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

131 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A dry weather pattern with temperatures trending warmer is

  forecast into next week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 131 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



1830Z water vapor imagery showed upper level ridging over the 

southwestern US that leaning east into the Upper Midwest. The mean 

westerlies remained across the Pacific Northwest and across Canada. 

Meanwhile an upper low cut off from the pattern was noted over AR. 

Surface obs showed high pressure from the central high plains into 

the middle MS river valley. 



For tonight fog formation looks to be less likely with some dry 

progged to advect in from the northeast. Deep mixing of the boundary 

layer has already lowered dewpoints into the upper 40s as well 

indicative of less low level moisture. So am not anticipating much 

fog for Saturday morning. 



There isn't much change to the forecast from the previous issuance 

as the forecast area remains generally in between energy lifting 

north from the gulf coast early next week and an upper trough 

lifting from the Rockies into the northern plains late in the week. 

Although the 12Z models now show the closed low along the gulf 

perhaps a little further west than before. Still models keep any QPF 

just east of the forecast area on Monday. The 00Z ensembles and 12Z 

operational solutions suggest the next meaningful chance for 

precipitation may not occur until next weekend. Cool mornings and 

warm afternoons look to persist through the weekend. By the middle 

of next week, there looks to be some stronger warm air advection 

to push highs to around 90. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Ridging at the surface and aloft will keep VFR conditions in

place.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wolters

AVIATION...Wolters