FXUS63 KTOP 071110

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

610 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Next chance for widespread precipitation continues to be Saturday 

  night (50-80% chance). 



- Near to above normal temperatures through the middle of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



Northwest flow aloft will dominate through this forecast. The first 

wave in this pattern arrives tonight with little in the way of 

moisture or instability in place. Most CAMS develop weak 

reflectivity but no measurable precipitation. Will continue with 10-

15 PoPs north nearer the wave. Moisture increases somewhat Friday 

afternoon as a weak front moves through but looks to only support 

post-frontal convection at best in southeastern areas. NBM PoPs 

seemed too high per the bulk of recent guidance. The front washes 

out into the weekend with somewhat greater moisture and modest 

instability returning late Saturday into Saturday night, with PW 

values around an inch and MUCAPE around 500 J/kg for a more likely 

rain event, though still not looking for any severe weather or heavy 

rainfall. Upper ridging builds north into the Rockies early next week

as surface high pressure reaches the Gulf creating little in the way

of precipitation potential despite a potential modified cold front 

around Tuesday.



Warm-air advection on breezy southwest winds brings warmer 

temperatures today with similar readings Friday. Further surges of 

warm air come Saturday then Monday into Tuesday with highs in the 

80s beyond the weekend being the rule. Dewpoints remain modest to 

keep apparent temps close to air temps.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 610 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026



VFR conditions will continue. Gusts should develop in the next few

hours and be the rule through around 23Z. Confidence in direction 

drops somewhat around this time but speeds should be less than 10 

knots. There is very small potential for low-level wind shear after 

06Z. 



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Poage

AVIATION...Poage