FXUS63 KTOP 051933

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

233 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers and storms - an isolated severe storm or two tonight - 

remain in the forecast through Friday.



- Heat builds once again into and through this weekend lasting 

into early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



The primary upper level features remain slow to evolve over the 

CONUS with a broad cyclonic flow regime in place stretching from the 

Great Lakes back through the northern Rockies. Over the Desert 

Southwest a weak anticyclone remains with subtropical moist plume 

noted across northern Mexico into the Baja region. Across the local 

area, a weak modified frontal boundary has very slowly been being 

pushed southeast across the area by a weak upper level shortwave 

rounding the base of the broader cyclonic flow. 



This frontal zone remain the focus for much of the next 12 to 18 hrs 

across the area. A few breaks in the clouds have resulted this 

afternoon and overall the low ceilings have lifted through the day 

with general warming of the BL and then also slightly drier air 

slowly being advected into the area from Nebraska well behind the 

front. This should remain the trend into the overnight period. 

However, a few strong to possibly a severe storm or two may be 

possible over mainly east-central areas but one or two could form 

along I-70 this evening into early overnight over central Kansas 

areas once the LLJ becomes active. Overall, forecast soundings do 

have some steep mid-level lapse rates and the shear within the layer 

of instability could support a few strong storms that persist long 

enough to develop hail that cold be around quarter size. Wind may 

become a hazard with early storms but appears to be an overall low 

risk. Brief heavy rain mainly over east-central areas may cause 

areal flooding if storms are slow moving enough. At this point, not 

expecting major flooding issues but not zero risk either with PW 

values approaching 2 inches at across parts of east-central into far 

northeast Kansas areas. This overall threat generally lasts from 

this evening through part of the overnight period before the LLJ 

veers and storms should then focus south and east of the area.  



Thursday night and Friday morning could see more chances for showers 

and storms with another weak embedded shortwave working through the 

upper pattern but the base of the broader trough should shift east 

with the better ascent focused east of the general area. Still, a 

weak lee trough with nocturnal LLJ may support overnight showers and 

embedded storms late Thursday night into early Friday morning.  



The heat becomes the focus through the weekend into Monday with the 

hottest days trending into Sunday/Monday. Can't rule out later heat 

headlines being needed. But right now, generally good agreement in 

the western CONUS ridge spreading east into the area appears on 

track. Some ensemble data suggest H85 temps from 25-30C range set up 

across the area which if no storms end up moving into the area then 

expect generally clear enough conditions that insolation and dry 

adiabatic mixing will push surface temps to the mid to upper 90s 

with dewpoints in low to mid 70s again will yield heat index values 

around 103-105F degrees over at least part of the area Sunday and 

Monday. Still too much uncertainty in the overall setup due to the 

northeastern flank of the broader ridge could be impacted by 

nocturnal storm systems moving through portions of the central 

Plains into the mid and upper MS Valley regions.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026



Update to previous forecast discussion, did mention -TSRA potential 

this evening far enough north due to the nose of theLLJ to keep TS 

mention in TAFs.



Expect that IFR cigs hang on for part of the afternoon around MHK 

while mostly marginal VFR cigs hold around KTOP/KFOE. The upper wave 

shifts east across the area slowly into this evening before exiting 

into the overnight early Wednesday morning. The persistent clouds 

help limit the thunderstorm potential so have removed mention of TSRA

into the overnight period. While some instability will likely help a

few updrafts become established enough to develop lightning, expect 

mostly a period of isolated showers redevelop late this 

evening/overnight. Potential for low cigs and IFR conditions occurs 

going into the 12Z period into tomorrow morning but confidence is too

low to go prevailing IFR at this time. Better confidence is off to 

the north and northeast of the terminals. 



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Drake

AVIATION...Drake