FXUS63 KTOP 051119

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

519 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Cool temperatures expected today and Friday.



-A warming trend begins this weekend until highs are back up near 70 

degrees on Monday.



-Dry weather expected.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



Two areas of cyclonic circulation were noted on water vapor imagery 

at 08Z, one over eastern IA and the other over far southeast CO. A 

trough axis between the two low pressure systems is approaching the 

forecast area early this morning. Precipitation appears unlikely due 

to fairly weak mid-level ascent and a lack of saturation in the 

column as the trough moves over the area today, but rain could occur 

both to the north and south. Cloud cover, however, makes it way back

over the area today, with low stratus impacting northeast KS. After 

starting the day in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees, temperatures 

will be limited to the mid 50s this afternoon.



Friday will be a chilly day as a surface ridge builds in from the 

north. Some locations in north-central KS could dip into the mid 30s 

tonight/Friday morning, while locations to the east will be slightly

warmer. Temperatures are then only expected to reach the low 50s for

highs. A warming trend commences this weekend and continues into 

early next week as southerly and westerly flow returns. Models are in

good agreement with highs around 70 degrees by Monday afternoon. 

Temperatures remain around 70 and conditions stay dry through at 

least midweek.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026



Light westerly winds turn more northwesterly and increase to near 10

kts this morning. Cloud cover also moves back in with confidence

highest in MVFR CIGs at KTOP/KFOE, but lower at KMHK. Thus, have 

left KMHK VFR for now. Winds become light this evening and tonight 

as high pressure moves in. MVFR CIGs at the Topeka airports will 

likely linger through the night.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Teefey

AVIATION...Teefey