FXUS63 KTOP 050903 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 303 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Cool temperatures expected today and Friday. -A warming trend begins this weekend until highs are back up near 70 degrees on Monday. -Dry weather expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026 Two areas of cyclonic circulation were noted on water vapor imagery at 08Z, one over eastern IA and the other over far southeast CO. A trough axis between the two low pressure systems is approaching the forecast area early this morning. Precipitation appears unlikely due to fairly weak mid-level ascent and a lack of saturation in the column as the trough moves over the area today, but rain could occur both to the north and south. Cloud cover, however, makes it way back over the area today, with low stratus impacting northeast KS. After starting the day in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees, temperatures will be limited to the mid 50s this afternoon. Friday will be a chilly day as a surface ridge builds in from the north. Some locations in north-central KS could dip into the mid 30s tonight/Friday morning, while locations to the east will be slightly warmer. Temperatures are then only expected to reach the low 50s for highs. A warming trend commences this weekend and continues into early next week as southerly and westerly flow returns. Models are in good agreement with highs around 70 degrees by Monday afternoon. Temperatures remain around 70 and conditions stay dry through at least midweek. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1006 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026 VFR favored through tomorrow morning, then MVFR (potentially IFR) CIGs move in from east to west late morning. Some light patchy fog has developed this evening with light wind and moisture at the surface. Minimal impacts are anticipated at the terminals, but fog may be dense enough at times to restrict vsby. Tomorrow, a low stratus deck will slowly move from east to west during the late morning and into the early afternoon. How low and how far west this stratus gets is a bit uncertain at this time. Therefore, kept CIGs in MVFR and only at the TOP terminals, but IFR conditions are not out of the question and it could make it as far west as KMHK. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Teefey AVIATION...Jones