FXUS63 KTOP 031953 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storm chances (20-40%) come to mainly central KS for the afternoon of July 4th. Highest rain chances (40- 60%) hold off area-wide until after midnight into Saturday morning. - Lower rain chances remain sporadic the rest of the weekend into next week. - Temperatures remain near average for early July for the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 A broad ridge aloft is over the central CONUS with its axis overhead, keeping quiet conditions in the area today. Yesterday's shortwave over CA has weakened while progressing east today, but a more defined shortwave isn't far behind off the western coast. Surface troughing has been deepening across CO today, allowing southerly low-level flow to bring in a more humid air mass. That said, the deeper moisture still resides well south into OK and TX. Any scattered convection should remain limited to that area this afternoon while we remain quiet and dry under diurnal cumulus. The weaker of the two aforementioned shortwaves is progged to lift northeastward across the Rockies and Plains Friday, which should help to develop a somewhat more organized cluster of storms in western NE/KS during the late afternoon and early evening hours of the Independence Day holiday. There may be just enough isentropic lift ahead of this feature, mainly in central KS, for a few isolated to widely scattered storms to develop ahead of the main cluster. However, better storm chances exist with the approaching upper wave, assuming the storms from the west can maintain themselves as they move into our area. Additionally, moisture transport looks to increase into western and central KS tonight into Friday. The moisture axis comprised of Pwat between 2-2.25" should gradually move east into our north central KS counties during the afternoon and eventually across the rest of the area later into the evening and overnight hours. The main time frame for any isolated activity looks to be generally 3-9pm if it occurs. There are some timing differences among CAMs with the approaching cluster from our west, with the ARW being on the earlier side, but a general consensus holds things off until after midnight. Storms also look to fall apart as they move into an environment with less shear and instability in our area, so not anticipating severe weather with this activity. Even with the deep moisture, confidence in any area receiving heavy rainfall is pretty low with the storms weakening as they move east. The HREF only has a 20-40% probability of exceeding 1" of rain, and this is limited to mainly Republic County. Rain should move out Saturday morning with a break before the next potential shortwave later Saturday into early Sunday. Models project more instability Saturday afternoon, but still low shear, so confidence in strength of any storms that redevelop remains rather low and would likely depend on how much clearing occurs as well. The pattern looks fairly unsettled into next week with subtle perturbations repeatedly rounding the upper ridge that becomes established over the southwest CONUS. Will likely need to take the details a day at a time with each wave being dependent on the one preceding it. Outside of storm chances, temperatures look seasonal for early July with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions are expected with mainly clear skies aside from some diurnal cu this afternoon. Southerly winds may approach 10 kts at times this afternoon, but should mainly stay under that until late Friday morning when winds pick up a bit more. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Picha AVIATION...Picha