FXUS63 KTOP 031738

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

1138 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- A very light wintry mix cannot be ruled out across northeast KS

  this morning and across north central KS late tonight into Wed

  morning. 



- If a wintry mix develops, the concern is for icy spots to develop

  on the roads. Probabilities of this happening are 20% or less, but

  could be a big impact if it does happen. 



- Mild and dry weather is forecast for the end of the week and into

  next weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 220 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



08Z water vapor imagery showed northwest flow aloft continued across

the northern Rockies and through the central plains. One shortwave 

was passing through the middle MO river valley as a speed max dug 

south along the northern Rockies. Surface obs showed an inverted 

trough from west TX into the Ozarks. This had shunted the better 

boundary layer moisture south of the forecast area with a northern 

wind across the state. 



There remains a remote chance for a very light wintry mix this 

morning and again overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning. 

Forecast soundings continue to show limited to no saturation within 

the dendritic growth zone suggesting any precipitation would be 

liquid to due to lack of ice in the cloud. But forecast soundings 

and isentropic surfaces also show little if any lift. This is 

especially true for this morning. With the shortwave already 

beginning to pass to the east and regional radars showing the 

closest precip across eastern IA and moving east, think chances for 

measurable precip are around 10 percent or less. Some of the CAMs 

still develop some weak radar returns over far northeast KS through 

midday along the MO river. This may be more diurnal heating related 

as low level lapse rates steepen. So have continued with a mention 

of flurries or sprinkles, but even the HRRR reflectivity is only 

about 10 dBZ. So it is something to monitor but I don't anticipate 

it becoming more than an isolated impact. For tonight, the RAP and 

NAM prog a little better mid level frontogenesis moving through 

central KS as the next shortwave passes mainly west of the area 

Wednesday morning. And the latest 00Z models tend to keep much of 

the QPF just to the west of the forecast. But given the 

frontogenesis progs, have held onto some slight chance POPs over the 

far western counties were a hundredth or two cannot be ruled out. 

QPF should remain light as the 01Z NBM shows a 90 percent chance the 

QPF will remain less than a tenth of an inch. And this better 

frontogenesis is expected to move south of the area by mid-morning 

Wednesday. So again impacts from any wintry mix should be relatively 

isolated. The biggest concern remains the potential for some light 

freezing drizzle to create icy spots on roads. 



By Thursday the upper ridge is progged to propagate east over the 

Rockies and provide westerly downslope and good warm air advection. 

Some spots could see highs in the 60s. This northwest flow pattern 

is expected to persist through the weekend with no obvious synoptic 

forcing noted in the operational solutions. So the dry forecast from 

the NBM looks good. Temps are expected to remain mild with readings 

generally in the 50s. I did notice the NBM forecast tends to be 

closer to the twenty fifth percentile with quite a spread (some 15 

degrees on some days) in max temps. But this seems to suggest there 

is more upside to temps than downside. In any case there is not a 

signal from the 00Z ensembles for an intrusion of arctic air over 

the next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1130 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026



Main challenge this forecast period is timing the cigs lowering

to MVFR. Upstream obs show these cigs as far south as CNK and

MYZ currently, and guidance is now mixed on how much this will 

spread southeast this afternoon. Opted for a tempo group at MHK 

while TOP/FOE seem a bit more likely to hold between 3-4 kft. 

There is slightly better agreement that cigs could fall to MVFR 

overnight into early Wednesday morning, but how long they remain

there is questionable. While there are some indications of a 

brief lift to VFR late in the period, opted to keep MVFR 

prevailing through the end of the period for now.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Wolters

AVIATION...Picha