FXUS63 KTOP 031105 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 505 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A very light wintry mix cannot be ruled out across northeast KS this morning and across north central KS late tonight into Wed morning. - If a wintry mix develops, the concern is for icy spots to develop on the roads. Probabilities of this happening are 20% or less, but could be a big impact if it does happen. - Mild and dry weather is forecast for the end of the week and into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 08Z water vapor imagery showed northwest flow aloft continued across the northern Rockies and through the central plains. One shortwave was passing through the middle MO river valley as a speed max dug south along the northern Rockies. Surface obs showed an inverted trough from west TX into the Ozarks. This had shunted the better boundary layer moisture south of the forecast area with a northern wind across the state. There remains a remote chance for a very light wintry mix this morning and again overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning. Forecast soundings continue to show limited to no saturation within the dendritic growth zone suggesting any precipitation would be liquid to due to lack of ice in the cloud. But forecast soundings and isentropic surfaces also show little if any lift. This is especially true for this morning. With the shortwave already beginning to pass to the east and regional radars showing the closest precip across eastern IA and moving east, think chances for measurable precip are around 10 percent or less. Some of the CAMs still develop some weak radar returns over far northeast KS through midday along the MO river. This may be more diurnal heating related as low level lapse rates steepen. So have continued with a mention of flurries or sprinkles, but even the HRRR reflectivity is only about 10 dBZ. So it is something to monitor but I don't anticipate it becoming more than an isolated impact. For tonight, the RAP and NAM prog a little better mid level frontogenesis moving through central KS as the next shortwave passes mainly west of the area Wednesday morning. And the latest 00Z models tend to keep much of the QPF just to the west of the forecast. But given the frontogenesis progs, have held onto some slight chance POPs over the far western counties were a hundredth or two cannot be ruled out. QPF should remain light as the 01Z NBM shows a 90 percent chance the QPF will remain less than a tenth of an inch. And this better frontogenesis is expected to move south of the area by mid-morning Wednesday. So again impacts from any wintry mix should be relatively isolated. The biggest concern remains the potential for some light freezing drizzle to create icy spots on roads. By Thursday the upper ridge is progged to propagate east over the Rockies and provide westerly downslope and good warm air advection. Some spots could see highs in the 60s. This northwest flow pattern is expected to persist through the weekend with no obvious synoptic forcing noted in the operational solutions. So the dry forecast from the NBM looks good. Temps are expected to remain mild with readings generally in the 50s. I did notice the NBM forecast tends to be closer to the twenty fifth percentile with quite a spread (some 15 degrees on some days) in max temps. But this seems to suggest there is more upside to temps than downside. In any case there is not a signal from the 00Z ensembles for an intrusion of arctic air over the next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 505 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 Satellite shows a stratus deck moving south. Will base the arrival of these CIGs on a linear extrapolation. Models continue to show CIGs lowering to MVFR but forecast soundings hint at the CIGs bouncing around 3KFT. Think that once the MVFR CIGS move into TOP and FOE, they are most likely to remain through the night. MHK may see some improvement by the evening. Confidence in the CIG forecast could be better, but feel it is the most likely outcome given upstream obs and latest guidance. Chances for very light precip are about 10 percent or lower, and to low to include in the forecast at this time. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters