FXUS63 KTOP 022026

AFDTOP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Topeka KS

226 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-There are a few low probability (20-30% chance) opportunities 

 for light wintry precipitation in the short-term.



-Temperatures warm nicely for the end of the workweek and

 upcoming weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



The main challenge for this forecast package is the chance for 

light wintry precipitation Tuesday morning into midday (round 

1) and again Tuesday night/early Wednesday (round 2). Confidence

is somewhat low on whether flurries/light snow or freezing 

drizzle will be the main p-type with any precip that impacts 

the area during both timeframes. Each round could occur in 

response to weak waves moving over the area within the northwest

flow aloft.



Round 1 (Tuesday) is more likely to impact far northeast and east-

central KS. Forecast soundings from the RAP and HRRR show some low 

level lift and saturation through the first 4kft to 5kft of the 

atmosphere, but drier air extending through the DGZ. This would 

indicate that freezing drizzle would be favored p-type, but have 

kept mention of light snow and freezing drizzle for now until 

confidence increases on one dominant type. Temps are expected to 

warm to just above freezing at the sfc late in the morning and 

midday, but if precip occurs prior to this timeframe, slick spots 

could result.



For round 2 (Tue night/early Wed), the area impacted by light wintry 

precipitation is more likely to be further west across central and 

north-central KS. Recent trends from forecast soundings show more 

saturation through the DGZ and am thinking p-type might be more 

flurries or light snow. Still, however, have kept a mention of some 

freezing drizzle initially as the column works to saturate. Either 

way, the main message is to watch out for any form of frozen 

precipitation. Freezing drizzle can quickly cause slick road and 

walk ways and often catches people off guard as a glaze of ice

can be difficult to see on roads.



Beyond midweek, confidence remains high on warmer weather returning 

to the area with upper level ridging building out west. Spread from 

the NBM is low on Thursday with the 25th to 75th percentile only 

ranging from 54F to 58F. While remaining warm, the spread on 

temperatures increases into the weekend with the 75th percentile 

well into the 60s. Have not yet adjusted the NBM forecast at that 

range, which sticks closer to the lower end of the spread,

keeping highs in the low to mid 50s through the weekend.





&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Feb 2 2026



VFR continues this afternoon with high clouds persisting above

15kft. Seeing enough signal from models to feel confident enough

in MVFR CIGS developing toward sunrise Tuesday as a trough axis

passes overhead. There could also be enough lift to generate

some flurries or freezing drizzle early tomorrow, so watch for

possible addition of precip with the next few updates if

confidence grows.



&&



.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Teefey

AVIATION...Teefey