FXUS63 KSGF 270730 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool, damp, and blustery conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances of 60-90% with northwest wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph. - Monitoring frost/freeze potential Thursday through Saturday mornings. Increasing confidence in at least frost in some areas. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Today-Tonight: Cool, cloudy, and mostly dry conditions are expected through today as the previous weekend's upper-level low shifts east. Highs in middle to upper 50s this afternoon, keeping temperatures around 10 degrees below average for late October. While it will be dry through today, the next system is on the horizon with a trough building into the Northern Plains. This system will bring unsettled weather to the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Tuesday-Wednesday: Ensemble guidance continues to highlight a trough digging out of the Northern Plains as we progress into Tuesday. Subtle changes to the forecast, with the system a bit further east than previous runs. Otherwise, the forecast remains intact with the trough and associated closed low translating into the Middle Mississippi Valley. As this occurs, moisture and lift will gradually be on the increase. PWATs are forecast to peak around one inch, though strong PVA with the associated shortwave will support widespread rain chances (60-90%). All day washouts are not expected on Tuesday or Wednesday, but intermittent periods of showers are likely. Chances remain low (10-20%) for an isolated thunderstorm across southern MO. There are no concerns for flooding with this system given the ongoing drought conditions and longer duration of the rainfall. Rainfall amounts are expected to be highest across central MO into south central MO. In general, the highest coverage is expected Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon, before chances diminish into Wednesday evening/night. Latest NBM 48-hr Probabilistic Precipitation Totals (Tuesday- Wednesday): >0.50 inches: 50-80% >1.00 inches: 30-60% >1.50 inches: 20-40% >2.00 inches: 0-20% In addition to rain chances, this system will feature gusty northwest winds with an increasing surface pressure gradient. Latest NBM probabilities suggest the highest wind gusts will be focused along and west of Highway 65. The NBM 50th percentile (mean) depicts wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph on Tuesday, and 30 to 40 mph on Wednesday. There are no indications that any wind headlines will be needed, with NBM probabilities of > 45 mph wind gusts remaining low (< 10%). Nonetheless, this will make for quiet chilly conditions, especially on Wednesday with highs in the lower 50s. Thursday-Sunday: As the system exits east into Thursday, broad northwest flow develops in its wake. A chilly morning on Thursday can be expected with temperatures starting out in the middle to upper 30s. Wind chills will make it feel closer to upper 20s/lower 30s. Temperatures rebound into middle to upper 50s with drier conditions and return of sunshine to the area. The clear nights ahead into late week set the stage for sufficient radiational cooling and the potential for frost/freeze. The latest NBM interquartile spreads would support lows around 34 to 39 degree range Friday morning, and the 33 to 39 degree range Saturday morning. Furthermore, NBM probabilities of overnight temperatures getting to 32 degrees or lower are in the 10-40% range and highest in the valleys of the eastern Ozarks. Thus, we will need to keep an eye on frost/freeze potential as we approach the end of the week. A gradual rebound of temperatures to near normal as we progress into the weekend with a ridge nudging into the area. This pattern setup supports drier weather and temperatures in the lower 60s this weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025 Intermittent periods of drizzle and reduced visibilities continue to fester across the TAF sites overnight into Monday morning. Reduced ceilings around 300 to 700 feet, in addition to reduced visibilities around 4 to 6 miles. Lower visibilities (around a half mile) with fog can be expected at KBBG. The LIFR to IFR flight conditions persist through mid-morning before eventually improving to MVFR. Overcast MVFR ceilings around 1500 to 2500 persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Light east-northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Perez