FXUS63 KSGF 092338 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 638 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild and dry conditions expected for the weekend. - Warming trend next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Continued quiet weather in the short term as the upper trough that brought rain the last couple of days shifts south, closing off near the Gulf of America by tonight. Look for lows in the 40s tonight and highs in the 70s Saturday under partly to mostly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Models meander the upper low somewhere in the vicinity of LA this weekend before sending it back N-NE through SE MO Monday into Tuesday. The weekend looks dry for the most part with highs in the 70s, but models are trending toward having the low impacting the area more with recent runs, which may bring showers and thunderstorms into southeastern MO Sunday evening (15-25% PoPs). Shower and thunderstorm chances have increased on Monday as well, with PoPs of 50-70% east of Highway 65 and 15-40% to the west. The western extend of the rainfall is still uncertain, so values may continue to shift. The system will still be exiting to the east on Tuesday as a ridge pushes in from the west. This will keep the west dry, but afternoon instability results in 20-30% chances for showers and storms along and east of Highway 63. Look for highs in the 70s Monday and around 80 on Tuesday. A warming trend is expected mid to late next week as an upper ridge moves into the area behind the upper low, followed by southwest flow aloft. Forecast highs for Wednesday through Friday are in the mid to upper 80s. The warm airmass also looks quite humid in latest guidance. There is potential for a shortwave to move through the region mid to late next week, which could pose a risk for thunderstorms. Right now the probability of seeing convection is <20% through Thursday, but PoPs increase to around 30% Friday. If there is overlap between the warm, moist airmass and any shortwave energy, severe weather may be possible. CSU and CIPS output does highlight the region for severe risk. ECMWF Ensemble for CAPE/Shear combo for Thursday shows an EFI of 0.8-0.9 with a shift of tails, demonstrating ensemble support for unusually high levels of CAPE/Shear. Being almost a weak away, confidence in details required for severe weather is low, but does merit additional monitoring. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025 VFR through the period with variable winds overnight. Northeasterly flow returns again tomorrow. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Titus LONG TERM...Titus AVIATION...Soria