FXUS63 KSGF 091719

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1219 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mild and dry conditions expected for the weekend.



- Warming trend next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Synoptic analysis shows an upper level trough located over/just

east of the area, with an upper low to our south. As of 2 AM,

satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies, with observations

hinting at patchy fog across the area. As the night progresses

into the morning, the patchy fog will continue, however the 

signal for widespread dense fog remains low. Overnight lows will

drop a few more degrees over the next couple hours, bottoming 

out in the low to mid 50s.



Throughout the course of today, the upper low will continue

pushing south/southeast, allowing skies to gradually clear

throughout the day. Afternoon highs will climb into the low to

mid 70s, with Friday night's temperatures in the low to mid 

40s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



On Saturday, models show the upper low becoming closed-off and

remaining fairly stationary over the LA/AR vicinity. Conditions

will remain mild and dry through the weekend, with temperatures

in the low to mid 70s Saturday, and the mid to upper 70s 

Sunday.



The closed-low will begin to drift northward during the

beginning of the week, increasing the cloud cover, and allowing

shower/thunderstorm chances to return by Monday morning (primarily

east of Highway 65) as energy wraps around the system. Recent 

model runs increased pops for Monday afternoon, showing 30-50% 

chances over the eastern CWA, with 20-30% chances lingering into

Tuesday afternoon. 



Once this system pushes northeast of the area Tuesday evening,

an upper level ridge will begin building over the region,

bringing a warming trend as a warm, humid airmass settles in. 

Current guidance shows temperatures climbing into the 80s by 

midweek as midlevel heights rise. 



Towards the end of the week, models are hinting at a shortwave

trough pushing through the region, which could bring additional

showers and thunderstorms. As the previous forecast mentioned,

if this upper level energy interacts with the warm, moist 

airmass, there is the potential for severe weather to occur.

CIPS output continues to highlight this potential, however 

confidence remains low as this is still several days away.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the TAF

period.



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Melto

LONG TERM...Melto

AVIATION...Titus