FXUS63 KSGF 090502

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1202 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances (30-75%) continue

  across the Ozarks into this evening. 



- Mild and dry conditions expected for the weekend.



- Warming trend for the first half of next week



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



An upper trough over the area will cause scattered showers and

non-severe thunderstorms to continue into this evening. Low

level moisture will stick around tonight, keeping cloud cover

over the area while potentially leading to fog. The fog signal

is not real strong, so no dense fog is currently predicted. Look

for lows tonight in the 50s.



For Friday, skies will gradually clear out through the day,

sticking around longest over the Ozarks Plateau. Highs are 

forecast to be in the low 70s.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 228 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



Models take the upper trough and deepen it into a closed low

that meanders somewhere in the vicinity of LA this weekend into

Monday before slowly drifting back N-NE into mid-week. The

weekend looks dry with highs in the 70s to low 80s, but models

are trending toward having the low impacting the area more with

recent runs, which may bring showers and thunderstorms into the

picture Monday and Tuesday. Currently, the forecast features

20-30% PoPs over the eastern half of the CWA, but that may need

to be increased if models persist in their trends.



Confidence decreases by mid week, but a warming trend is

expected as an upper ridge moves into the area behind the upper

low. Forecast highs for Wednesday are in the mid 80s. The

warm airmass also looks quite humid in latest guidance. There is

potential for a shortwave to move through the region mid to late

next week, which could pose a risk for thunderstorms. If there

is overlap between the warm, moist airmass and any shortwave

energy, severe weather may be possible. CSU and CIPS output does

highlight the region for severe risk, but confidence is low at

this time. Stay tuned.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... 

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025



VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period, with

north-northeasterly winds between 7-10 kts and occasional gusts

up to 15 kts. Some patchy fog could develop by early morning, as

well as lowered ceilings to MVFR for a couple hours around 12Z.

However, confidence in either of those occurrences remains too 

low to include in the TAFs. 



&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Titus

LONG TERM...Titus

AVIATION...Melto