FXUS63 KSGF 030540 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably mild weather through Thursday will give way to a slow warming trend into the weekend. - Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances (15-30%) west of Highway 65 for Friday (Independence Day) into Saturday. - Additional rain chances then exist region wide Saturday night into Sunday...with periodic 20-50% chances through midweek. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 An unseasonably mild airmass has settled into the Ozarks with most areas enjoying temperatures in the middle 80s coupled with dew points in the upper 50s to around 60. Look for patchy fog overnight, particularly in river bottoms, as skies clear and winds become light and variable as weak surface high pressure drifts overhead. Temperatures and dew points will show minor rises on Thursday as the center of the high shifts east and weak return southerly flow sets up. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 205 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025 The southerly fetch will increase into the 4th as the surface high shifts further east and upper heights climb as an upper level ridge builds southwest to northeast into the Missouri Ozarks. High temperatures will warm back to around normal...with the heat index reaching 90-95. Models vary with the potential for early morning thunderstorms over southeast Kansas into far western Missouri in association with a weak low level jet. Model SBCAPEs range from 500-1500 joules by afternoon but minimal synoptic support is expected to yield isolated convection at best. The mid to long term will then involve a wavy northern stream jet that will bring period shortwaves across the northern Plains...and trailing frontal boundaries toward the forecast areas Sunday into mid week. Models characteristically have differences in timing...resulting in periodic 30-50% thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions to prevail for the entire TAF period with 3-8 kt south-southwesterly winds and a 5 kft cu field developing between 16-01Z. River valley fog is expected between 07-13Z, which should not impact the TAF sites (>70% chance). BBG may see some reduced visibilities from the surounding valley fog/mist, but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at the moment. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Price