FXUS63 KSGF 020544

AFDSGF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Springfield MO

1244 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Some mild heat and rain relief today through Thursday before 

  heat, humidity, and isolated rain chances (15-30%) return for 

  the Independence Day Weekend and onwards.



- Greatest chance for precipitation is Sunday and Monday

  (30-45%) due to a signal for a weak front/trough passage. 

  Details are still uncertain.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper

air analysis shows dry air aloft behind a passing shortwave that

is now across the Ohio River Valley. The 12z KSGF sounding only

measured 1.15in of PW which is the lowest its been in over a

week. Surface high pressure has settled in Kansas with light

northerly winds advecting in lower dewpoints. Skies were mostly

sunny except for some cirrus and cumulus south of I-44.



This Afternoon through Tonight: Surface high pressure will

settle into Missouri tonight. Light winds, saturated soils and

high pressure moving in typically allows for decent fog

potential however given the cirrus moving in that could limit

the fog to more of a river valley/shallow nature by morning. Low

temps look to solidly drop into the lower to middle 60s with

some areas potentially dropping into the upper 50s, especially

those typical cooler valleys and wind protected areas. Again,

the high cirrus could limit the full extent of cooling. 



Wednesday: High pressure will be sliding south and east of the

area and winds will be slowly turning out of the south. Given

the dry airmass in place, no precip is expected and with mostly

sunny skies, NBM high temps in the middle to upper 80s look 

reasonable.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025



Thursday: Even though moisture will slowly be increasing, mid

level height rises and lack of a strong lifting mechanism look

to keep the area dry again for Thursday. NBM high temps in the 

upper 80s to near 90 look reasonable.



Independence Day into the weekend: Mid level heights rise even 

more for the 4th of July and thinking that the only shot at 

precip may be along and west of I-49 where precip chances are 20

percent or less. Should see high temps around 90 degrees. Some 

weak energy looks to slide through Saturday and pops are around 

20-30 percent to account for this. Again, given the warm air 

aloft, precip should be pretty isolated/scattered in nature. 

Additional energy moves in Sunday and Monday and may allow for 

slightly more coverage of precip with chances increasing over 

40%. Overall, high temps look to reach the upper 80s to perhaps 

lower 90s which is actually right around average for the time of

year. Heat indicies will gradually climb into the middle to 

upper 90s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



Medium confidence in VFR conditions prevailing for the entire

TAF period. Given high pressure, weak winds, and cooling

temperatures, crossover temp guidance may suggest a low-end

chance for mist/fog to develop at the TAF sites (<30% chance). 

For now, expecting the densest mist/fog to stay confined to 

river valleys.



Otherwise, winds will be light and variable, settling out of the

southwest between 16-01Z in which a SCT 4-6 kft cu field will

also develop.





&&



.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KS...None.

MO...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Burchfield

LONG TERM...Burchfield

AVIATION...Price