FXUS63 KPAH 271043 CCA AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Paducah KY 543 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Steady rainfall this morning will taper off to lingering showers by the afternoon. Isolated rain showers and drizzle will remain possible during a lull Monday night into Tuesday. - A prolong period of steady rain will impact the entire region late Tuesday through all of Wednesday. Additional rainfall between 1.0 to 2.5 inches is expected. - Temperatures will remain seasonably cool through the entire week. Wednesday will be the coldest day with high temperatures struggling to reach the upper 50s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 134 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A 500 mb vort max is located over the FA, providing lift for stratiform bands of rain that will gradually move east later this morning with weak sfc low pressure along the Gulf coast. Areas of rain will likely linger over the Kentucky Pennyrile before tapering off to scattered rain showers across the entire FA. Drier air will eventually advect in with easterly winds as a 1035 mb sfc high pressure over Quebec helps to suppress moisture to the south. A few isolated rain showers will remain possible Monday night into Tuesday, but some of this may simply be drizzle due to low-level stratus. Temperatures will be seasonably cool with highs in the low 60s and lows in the mid 40s to near 50. Another prolonged period of stratiform rain remains on track for late Tuesday through all of Wednesday. The synoptic setup is quite impressive as there is good model agreement with a amplified 500 mb longwave trough developing into a closed low in the vicinity of the FA by Wednesday morning. Very robust lift will be combined with upper level divergence associated with the left exit region of a jet max. The dynamics translate to cyclogenesis at the sfc with MSLP falling to around 1000 mb in either southeast Missouri or northwest Tennessee. Despite the slight differences in placement, heavy rainfall and breezy conditions are probable before rain tapers off to lingering showers by Thursday. Additional rainfall is progged between 1.0 to 2.5 inches. As the 500 mb energy transverses east on Thursday, a triple phase occurs with northern stream energy over the Great Lakes and Dakota, supporting a broad trough to remain in place over the eastern CONUS through next weekend. The NBM has slight PoPs progged Saturday night into Sunday when model guidance shows a shortwave moving through. Both the GFS and ECMWF are pretty meager with the moisture return, only supporting some scattered light rain showers. The coldest high temperatures are progged by the NBM on Wednesday with highs only in the mid 50s, gradually moderating back into the low 60s by Saturday. Meanwhile, low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s still remain progged for Friday morning and Saturday morning, but the coldest 850 mb temps below 0c has trended slightly more northeast over the Ohio Valley. A residual pressure gradient combined with some scattered cloud cover may be enough to inhibit the boundary layer from completely decoupling that would support lows closer to the NBM 50th percentile near freezing. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 520 AM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Steadier rain impacting mainly the northern terminals will taper off to lingering showers across the entire region later this morning. MVFR cigs will lower to IFR with areas of drizzle developing this evening. Patchy fog is also possible tonight, especially at terminals KCGI and KPAH. Winds will be light out of the east between 4-7 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DW