FXUS63 KPAH 270442

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Steady rainfall is expected to continue until late overnight

  and then start tapering off into tomorrow morning. 



- Rain chances come back Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and

  taper off Thursday morning.



- Seasonably cool temperatures continue this week with the

  chilliest day being Wednesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 241 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



An upper level southern stream low pushes through the area today and 

tomorrow while the associated sfc low pushes through the lower 

Mississippi Valley. Deep layer saturation has lead to periods 

of steady rain across portions of the area today. Rain is 

expected to continue until late overnight when things will start

to diminish and then taper off tomorrow morning as the upper 

level disturbance phases with the northern stream trof to the 

northeast. There will then be a brief lull until Tuesday 

afternoon. 



A large, amplified, longwave digging trof ejects into the Plains 

Tuesday afternoon and closes off by Wednesday morning. Left jet exit 

region dynamics help with rapid cyclogenesis as an approximately 

1,000 mb sfc low develops over the CWA. Chances for showers ramp 

back up Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday and taper off Thursday 

early morning. Between today and Wednesday, storm total rainfall 

will be around 1-3". Wednesday expect breezy winds with the tighter 

sfc pressure gradient.



Seasonably cool temperatures continue this week with the chilliest 

day being Wednesday with highs in the 50s. Lows Wednesday night 

through Friday night might be too warm right now as NBM is sitting 

around the 75th percentile. This means Thursday night and Friday 

night some places could see lows closer to freezing.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 26 2025



A straggling low is very slowly moving east across the area. To

the west of the current precipitation IFR conditions exist all

the way to Colorado, in the current precip Low MVFR and

IFR conditions exist, and east of there remains VFR but with the

conditions they could easily drop quickly and do have them

forecast down to MVFR with IFR possible. 



The forecast for tomorrow is fairly pessimistic with IFR setting

up with ceilings 600-900 ft most of the day. Could see a little

better than that with some daytime heating/mixing but everything

has been pretty consistent with it.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...HICKFORD

AVIATION...JGG