FXUS63 KPAH 221906 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 206 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - One last day of summer like temperatures today with records once again possible. - A cold front this evening will bring a 30-60% chance of showers and storms to areas mainly east of the Mississippi River. Storm coverage confidence is rather low still, but should we get storms there is an isolated severe threat for damaging winds and large hail. - After the early week cool down, temperatures warm up again Wednesday and Thursday and will make a run at records again Thursday. - Later on Thursday another cold front swings through and brings a 25-50% chance for more showers and storms along with another cool down. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Spring is certainly here as we grapple with roller coaster temperatures over the next 7 days. Summer like temperatures continue for one more day today with several records possible for both daily and monthly highs. This is due to the eastward expansion of the potent ridge over the southwest CONUS. Winds are breezy today thanks to strong mixing and a tightening pressure gradient ahead of this evening's cold front. With the cold front comes a 30-60% chance of showers and storms mainly east of the Mississippi River, but with a stout cap in place and a rather dry profile, CAMS have very limited convection coming through. PoPs may be on the high side. If some storms manage to break through the cap, they will likely be elevated with LCLs around 1,200-1,400 m. They may also be strong to severe wit the primary threats being downbursts/damaging winds and large hail. MUCAPE is around 2,000 J/kg and mid-level lapse rates are steep around 7.5-8 degC/km and 0-6 km shear is around 35-40 kts. This is still a very conditional threat but the SPC Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe is still warranted. Confidence in storm coverage continues to be low. Timing still looks the same around 22Z- 04Z (5PM - 11PM) with the area being clear of the front by around 06Z (1 AM). Winds remain breezy behind the front. Sfc high pressure moves in behind the front and keeps temperatures near normal to start the week. Then, as the sfc high moves off to the east, southerly flow returns and brings another warm up Wednesday and Thursday. Highs on Thursday may make another run at records. Another front comes through later on Thursday and brings a 25-50% chance for showers and storms again Thursday night through Friday. Behind the front temperatures once again cool down to near normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. A quick moving cold front will be coming through the area this evening. With the front comes the possibility for some scattered to isolated showers and storms. However, given the environmental set up and vertical profiles, coverage of showers and storms is rather low confidence at this time and is a very conditional threat. The best window for convection is between 23Z and 04Z. The threat looks to be mainly east of the Mississippi River. There is a stout capping inversion in place, but any storms that manage to break through the cap could pose a threat for downbursts/microbursts and large hail. Winds are currently 7-15 kts with gusts to around 20-25 kts out of the southwest. Once the front moves through winds will shift quickly to the north but remain breezy and gusty through the end of the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HICKFORD AVIATION...HICKFORD