FXUS63 KPAH 220459

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

1159 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Summer like temperatures continue today and tomorrow with

  daily and monthly records possibly being in jeopardy.



- A cold front tomorrow evening will bring a 25-50% chance for 

  showers and storms to mainly areas east of the Mississippi 

  river. A few storms could be strong to severe with damaging 

  winds and hail.



- Temperatures warm up again Wednesday and Thursday before the

  next cold front comes through late Thursday and brings a

  25-40% for showers and storms Thursday night through Friday.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



The extreme high pressure heat dome centered over the southwest 

CONUS edges into the Midwest today and tomorrow bringing unusually 

warm, summer like temperatures. Daily and monthly records may be in 

play today and tomorrow. A cold front is set to move through 

tomorrow evening though and bring temperatures back to around normal 

for the start of next week. With this front also comes a 25-50% 

chance for showers and storms mainly for areas east of the 

Mississippi river (highest over southwest IN). Based on soundings 

there looks to be a strong temperature inversion cap in place. This 

means confidence in convective initiation is low, but what storms do 

manage to form are likely going to be elevated and high based. Any 

that can break through the cap may pose a risk for 

downbursts/damaging wind gusts and/or severe hail (1" or greater). 

SPC has a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather over the 

northern half of the CWA and most of southwest IN is in a Slight 

(level 2 of 5) risk. 



Sfc high pressure moves in behind the front keeping temperatures 

mainly in the 60s Monday and Tuesday. As the high pressure moves off 

east around mid week, we start to see a warm up again starting 

Wednesday and peaking in the 80s again on Thursday. Yet another cold 

front comes through late Thursday (still some timing differences) 

and brings back a 25-40% chance for showers and storms Thursday 

through Friday. There is still more to be nailed down in this time 

frame though. Behind the front temperatures come back down to around 

normal once again for Friday and Saturday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



VFR conditions will persist through 00z. A strong cold front

will move across the TAF sites between 22z-04z. Included PROB30 -shra

at KMVN from 23z-03z, and VCSH with PROB30 tsra at KEVV/KOWB 

between 23z-05z. MVFR conditions likely with precipitation, and

may linger at KOWB/KEVV behind the precipitation. Southwest 

winds at 3-8kts overnight will increase to 8-13kts with gusts of

16-22kts after 13z. Winds will shift to the NW/N with the 

frontal passage and continue to gust to around 20kts. 



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$





DISCUSSION...HICKFORD

AVIATION...RST