FXUS63 KPAH 092052

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

352 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry and cooler conditions trend closer to normal on Sunday. 



- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday evening into

  Tuesday, lingering into Wednesday mainly southwest Indiana. 



- Above normal temperatures near 90 degrees are forecast

  Thursday and Friday along with a significant increase in 

  humidity. 



- A risk for severe weather may return late next week into the

  following weekend.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



A 1030 mb sfc high pressure will build across the Great Lakes region 

this weekend providing dry northerly flow. Temperatures on Saturday 

will still be a few degrees below normal in the low 70s before 

trending more seasonable on Sunday into the mid to upper 70s. After 

a chilly night in the upper 40s, lows trend warmer into the 50s 

Saturday night and near 60 Sunday night.



The LREF is in decent agreement in holding off pcpn chances until 

Sunday evening for most of the FA as a 500 mb low currently over the 

lower Mississippi River Valley slowly drifts north over the weekend 

with moisture. The greater risk associated with diurnally driven 

scattered showers and thunderstorms holds off until Monday and 

Tuesday. Thermo profiles support about 750 J/kg of MLCAPE, but are 

very meager with 20 kts or less of effective bulk shear. More of a 

summer like pulse type storm mode is favored, inhibiting the concern 

for organized strong storms. 



While shower and storm chances are progged to linger on Wednesday 

mainly over southwest Indiana, high temperatures trend back into the 

80s as a ridge axis builds into the FA. Thursday will be dry, hot 

and more humid with dewpoints rising above 70 degrees. In fact, the 

NAEFS ESAT indicates 850 mb temps in the 99th percentile above 20C. 

This translate to high temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90, 

with NBM probabilities over 50% for reaching the low 90s both 

Thursday and Friday. As a broad 500 mb trough digs down from the 

northern Plains on Friday, there will be the potential for some 

convection with 0-3km theta-e rising to 340K. The CFSv2, CIPS, and 

CSU all continue to indicate probabilities of severe weather late 

next week into the following weekend, but there still remains a 

large spread in how model guidance is handling different synoptic 

features.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 348 PM CDT Fri May 9 2025



The terminals will be situated between high pressure to the

north and west, and low pressure to the south and east. The low

will sit and slowly spin its elements across the lower MS

Valley. Its outer reaches will be a canopy of high clouds that

gradually invades our skies over the back half of the forecast,

so BKN-OVC250 CIGS are expected to develop here over the next 

24 hours but particularly tmrw.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$