FXUS63 KPAH 091119 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 619 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions are forecast today through much of the weekend. - Rain chances return Sunday night through Tuesday. - Above normal temperatures, possibly flirting with 90, are forecast the latter part of next week along with a marked increase in humidity. - A threat for severe thunderstorms could return later next week into the following weekend (May 15-18). && .UPDATE... Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Dry northerly flow will be present the next couple of days, as high pressure to our north drifts south across the mid Mississippi Valley. This will keep temperatures somewhat below normal through the weekend, with the chilliest readings occurring tonight when we dip into the mid to upper 40s. An upper level low over the Mid-South this weekend will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley Sunday night through Tuesday. This will lead to a return of showers and a few thunderstorms across our FA. A few models suggest showers may seep into counties near the TN/AR borders on Sunday, but the majority of guidance keeps us dry until after sunset. Next week an upper trough will lift northeast from the western U.S. into the Upper Midwest. This will lead to ridging setting up across the southeast U.S. with healthy southwest flow surging across our area by Thursday/Friday. Low level moisture is expected to really increase, with dewpoints at least into the upper 60s, and quite possibly above 70. Temperatures will also rise above normal, into the upper 80s, and may flirt with 90 in some locations. The combination should result in high instability with CAPE possibly exceeding 3000 j/kg. This environment may favor an increased potential for severe thunderstorms. Models differ in how they handle pockets of energy south of the main upper trough Thursday into Friday, but most indicate some form of convection occurring sometime during the May 15-18 period. CIPS analogs and CSU-MLP products continue to depict broad areas of severe probabilities across a large area late in the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 IFR/low MVFR cigs over the south half of the region will slowly erode and/or sink south through the morning, giving way to mainly clear skies this afternoon. Some increase in high clouds is expected tonight. Northeast winds around 10 kts may gust in the 15-18 kt range today, before becoming light after sunset. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...SP DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP