FXUS63 KPAH 090706 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 206 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and slightly cooler than normal conditions are forecast today through much of the weekend. - Rain chances return Sunday night through Tuesday. - Above normal temperatures, possibly flirting with 90, are forecast the latter part of next week along with a marked increase in humidity. - A threat for severe thunderstorms could return later next week into the following weekend (May 15-18). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM CDT Fri May 9 2025 Dry northerly flow will be present the next couple of days, as high pressure to our north drifts south across the mid Mississippi Valley. This will keep temperatures somewhat below normal through the weekend, with the chilliest readings occurring tonight when we dip into the mid to upper 40s. An upper level low over the Mid-South this weekend will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley Sunday night through Tuesday. This will lead to a return of showers and a few thunderstorms across our FA. A few models suggest showers may seep into counties near the TN/AR borders on Sunday, but the majority of guidance keeps us dry until after sunset. Next week an upper trough will lift northeast from the western U.S. into the Upper Midwest. This will lead to ridging setting up across the southeast U.S. with healthy southwest flow surging across our area by Thursday/Friday. Low level moisture is expected to really increase, with dewpoints at least into the upper 60s, and quite possibly above 70. Temperatures will also rise above normal, into the upper 80s, and may flirt with 90 in some locations. The combination should result in high instability with CAPE possibly exceeding 3000 j/kg. This environment may favor an increased potential for severe thunderstorms. Models differ in how they handle pockets of energy south of the main upper trough Thursday into Friday, but most indicate some form of convection occurring sometime during the May 15-18 period. CIPS analogs and CSU-MLP products continue to depict broad areas of severe probabilities across a large area late in the week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 535 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 A small chance of showers/storms will linger into the early evening as low pressure slowly drifts thru and away. Guidance suggests all indications that restricted bases/cigs will be predominant tonight, despite potential clearing this evening. With the low's further departure tmrw, anticipate clouds to scour by the time of the planning phase of the forecast, with some potential for some north to northeast gustiness thru the peak heating hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...DH