FXUS63 KPAH 061840

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

140 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warming tomorrow into the weekend. Best chance at 80 is in

  SEMO on Saturday.



- Couple rounds of showers/storms possible Friday

  evening/overnight and again Saturday night through Sunday.

  Limited accumulations are expected with both events. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



A broad positively tilted upper level trof sits over the region till 

Friday with a sfc boundary to our south today. This afternoon we 

could see some lingering overrunning showers in our southeast 

TN border counties. Sfc high pressure moves in tonight. Even 

though skies will clear out, lower dew points will minimize fog 

chances for tonight. 



We start warming up tomorrow into the weekend wtih temperatures back 

to around normal. The sfc high moves east by Friday morning and 

brings back southerly return flow as we warm into the 70s. Friday 

evening a weaker shortwave aloft rolls through and brings back 

showers/storms. Best chances are the NBM 50-80% chances Friday 

evening along and north and west of the Ohio River, tapering off to 

the east and northeast overnight. Accumulations are limited to 

around 0.25" at best. 



Dry and warm conditions are expected Saturday with highs pushing 80. 

NBM chances of reaching 80 are greatest over SEMO at 50-70%. Our 

next system is a slightly better defined upper level trof that rolls 

through Saturday night through Sunday. Showers and storms are 

possible Saturday night through Sunday. NBM has 24 hr rain 

accumulations at a 60-75% chance of a half inch or less. With this 

being a slightly better defined system, we are watching for 

strong/severe potential. Behind this system is a brief cool down for 

Monday then temperatures come back up Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026



VFR conditions expected through the end of the period. Some sct

lower end VFR clouds are present in the obs and on satellite and

are expected to continue to lift through the afternoon to around

the mid levels. The over all cloud deck looks to clear out after

midnight tonight from northwest to southeast. Winds are

northerly today and are around 6-9 kts. Winds will go light to

calm overnight and through tomorrow morning.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...HICKFORD

AVIATION...HICKFORD