FXUS63 KPAH 030712

AFDPAH



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Paducah KY

212 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Dry and mostly sunny conditions will continue today through 

  the first half of the holiday weekend.



- Increasing heat and humidity can be expected for the 4th of

  July and through the weekend.



- Chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Sunday

  afternoon, with an unsettled weather pattern persisting into

  the middle of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025



A weak upper level disturbance is moving across the Ohio Valley

this morning with a few clouds on satellite imagery. 

Temperatures have fallen into the upper 60's to lower 70's at 

discussion time with nearly calm wind. Some patchy fog remains 

possible through the morning. Upper level ridging begins to 

build across the plains today before shifting east into the Ohio

Valley by the weekend. Dry conditions are expected across the 

region through the holiday period and the first half of the 

weekend. Temperatures slowly increase the rest of the week and 

into the weekend with highs returning to the low to mid 90's. 



By Sunday upper level ridging begins to break down as lower 

heights approach from the north and west. A surface high will 

move east allowing for a return of southerly flow and moisture 

back into the area. A front will approach from the west before 

nearly stalling out across the region next week. This front and 

further support from troughing aloft will bring an unsettled 

weather pattern to the region. Severe weather chances look low 

given the lack of shear. PW's rise to around 2-2.1" next week 

supporting the potential for some heavy rainfall but don't see 

any signals for a more heightened risk of flash flooding at this

time. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025



KMVN already has an MVFR visibility in fog and that will

continue through the night. They are not likely to fall through

the cross-over temperature, so any lower conditions should be

shallow. Used MIFG to handle anything less than MVFR. Cannot

rule out similar conditions developing at KCGI and KPAH, but

KEVV and KOWB should remain VFR. KMVN may drop to MVFR levels

again by the end of the period, as well, but will not insert it

in the forecast at this time.



&&



.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

IL...None.

MO...None.

IN...None.

KY...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AD

AVIATION...DRS